According to our first tracking poll of the election there has been a four percentage slip in Labor support since July 21. As my best guess at the time was that the Labor vote was 52% two-party preferred, this suggests that Labor is now on about 48% of the 2PP result, which is on a par with the worst polling results they are getting.

The proliferation of pundits is one of the strangest features of this strange election campaign. Forget Twitter, Facebook and the chattering classes.

The politicians are telling us that this election is about a lot of things, but that's not what electors are saying. For them there are a very few issues, and they are mostly issues of character. The Leximancer map below explores the question of preferred prime minister. The central theme, as it should be, is leadership, but the strengths of the respective candidates are gender for the PM and trust for the challenger.

Last night's 7.30 report featured a cameo appearance by yours truly. This election will be lost and won in the Queensland and New South Wales and they were looking at a series of marginal seats in and around Brisbane.

It’s too early to make a call of the election, but if you’re a forecaster why wait until it’s obvious? So here’s my call. Julia Gillard is going to win. But that doesn’t mean that Tony Abbott can’t be a winner too.