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612 ABC Morning broadcast from Morayfield
Thursday, 19 August 2010 16:37 | Written by Graham Young

Graham Young on ABC panel LongmanThis morning I did a studio panel with Milton Dick, ALP Councillor for Richlands, Patrick Weller, Professor of Politics and Public Policy at Griffith University and host Madonna King on 612 ABC's Morning program. I've never done anything quite like this. We were outside Woolworths in the Morayfield Shopping Centre and there was an audience sitting in chairs in front of us.

That makes radio a bit more nerve wracking. You can be talking to thousands of people and not feel a twinge of nerves, but putting just some of those faces directly in front of you makes quite a difference. You can see more of the program by clicking here.

My commentary relied on the research we've been conducting over the election period, so nothing you haven't already read here.

At the end we were asked to give our predictions. Mine was Julia by around 6 seats. Milton Dick said it was on a knife edge, but he expected Labor would just squeak in, and Pat Weller suggested a hung parliament. Longman is one of the seats that might be in play, although scuttlebutt from both parties suggests that Labor will hold it. One of the ABC producers wasn't so sure from some of the on-the-ground comments they've been getting.

Longman is one to watch on the night.

Graham Young, Milton Dick, Pat Weller at ABC outside broadcast, Longman

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Comments   

 
0 #1 I think Longman will stay with Jon Sulli — Colin D 2010-08-21 07:15
I think Longman will stay with Jon Sullivan and Labor; slip-ups in radio interviews notwithstanding . The demographics of the area make it more naturally Labor to start with (perhaps surprisingly . . . but look at past booth stats for Longman from City Hall as a clue). Plus, Sullivan took it off Mal Brough in 07 -- who held it on 9.6 percent -- with the breeze behind his back. Sure, it looks really close on paper at 1.4 or whatever, but there's a 'historical momentum' in Sullivan's win that will be hard to reverse out of its pure inertia. Combined with the candidate the LNP are running, I can't see the electorate really swapping trains. They have no good and compelling reason to. The undecideds? They'll umm and ahh . . . think about it in the booth . . . not be able to see any hurt that Labor put on them (or that the Libs are likely to) and vote as they did in '07 (In fact, I think that'll be pretty common across the election. Though I suspect 'informal' to pick up a booth or two on primary!).
 
 
0 #2 Well, the result is in. How much do you — Graham Young 2010-08-22 22:12
Well, the result is in. How much do you think Sullivan's argument with the constituent played a part?