|After 5 weeks they're back where they started|
The chart below shows the zero-based movements in the party first preference votes. The Greens have actually suffered a slight decline over the course of the election, but the Labor and Liberal parties moved apart in the middle and have now come back together.
My interpretation of this is that the Government probably has around 52 to 53 percent of the two-party preferred vote, which makes it highly unlikely that swings in marginal seats will deliver up government to the opposition.
I have put the unadjusted tables below. There has been slight movement to Abbott as preferred Prime Minister, and both Abbott's and Gillard's net approvals have risen very modestly. Absent a really big event Labor should be easily returned. But just to make sure I'll have a look at marginals later in the week.
Looks like Abbott may have overcome some uncertainties during the period.
Julia has just struggled into positive numbers.
Tony hasn't made it yet, although they were both looking negative in the middle of the campaign.