WA Election Quants

Tuesday, 12 March 2013 06:52 | Written by Graham Young

Generally voters return the government if they think that their country or state is heading in the right direction.

Direction	Total
Strongly agree	26%
Agree	40%
Neither agree nor disagree	8%
Disagree	14%
Strongly disagree	11%
Unsure	2%
Grand Total	100%
Total agree	66%
Total disagree	25%
Net agree	42%

So on that basis, Barnett had little to worry about. Only 25% disapprove of the direction in which he and the Liberals are taking WA.

Barnett is also personally popular.

Barnett_Approve	Total
Strongly approve	25%
Approve	31%
Neither approve nor disapprove	12%
Disapprove	17%
Strongly disapprove	15%
Grand Total	100%
Total approve	55%
Total disapprove	32%
Net approve	23%

Although his opponent tracks pretty well for an opposition leader.

McGowan_Approve	Total
Strongly approve	8%
Approve	36%
Neither approve nor disapprove	25%
Disapprove	16%
Strongly disapprove	11%
No opinion	5%
Grand Total	100%
Total approve	44%
Total disapprove	27%
Net approve	17%

Only 27% disapprove of him, which is less than for Barnett. Where Barnett's approval rating is superior is that fewer people are neutral on him (12% versus 25% for McGowan) and those numbers are in his approvals.

The result of this election was never really at issue, as can be seen from expectations.

Expectation	Total
Coalition	78%
Labor	6%
Neither (Hung Parliament)	11%
Unsure	5%
Grand Total	100%

Interesting that more people expected a hung parliament than a Labor victory, which was only rated at 6%. Given this very low Labor vote there was potentially room for a swing back, just to check Barnett's momentum. That this didn't happen suggests that as an opposition Labor hadn't even met minimum expectations.

There was also a strong desire for the Liberals to win, and only around a third of voters wanted a Labor win.