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May poll - the quarterly quants
Sunday, 27 May 2012 21:35 | Written by Graham Young

As of the week beginning May 13 the federal opposition had declined in popularity compared to our poll in December last year by somewhere in the order of 3%. This is distinct from Newspoll which shows the level of support at the end of last year as almost identical to what it is now, with the distinction that they also show the coalition vote increasing significantly and then declining again within that same time period.

FPI_12_05_17

 

Our First Preference Index above, which zero-based the various political party votes in September 2008 shows relative movements. While the Liberals have dropped back and Labor increased, we are still looking at a very wide gap between the two.

The following tables are based on our sample, adjusted for voting intention so that it mirrors the electorate at large.

Gillard_Approve Total
Strongly approve 12%
Approve 18%
Disapprove 10%
Neither approve nor disapprove 9%
Strongly disapprove 50%
Unsure 1%
Grand Total 100%
Total approve 30%
Total disapprove 59%
Net approve -29%

Julia Gillard continues to be highly unpopular

Tony Abbott, while not popular, certainly does well by comparison.

 

Abbott_Approve Total
Strongly approve 20%
Approve 22%
Neither approve nor disapprove 8%
Disapprove 9%
Strongly disapprove 42%
Unsure 0%
Grand Total 100%
Total approve 41%
Total disapprove 50%
Net approve -9%

And also just wins the preferred Prime Minister question.

 

Preferred_PM Total
Julia Gillard 47%
Tony Abbott 53%
Grand Total 100%

These results align with our two-party preferred result for the coalition of 52% to 48% against Labor.

 

Final_Pref Total
Coalition 52%
Labor 48%
Grand Total 100%

While public debate takes the inevitability of a coalition government after the next election for granted, even with the government's dire first preference polling, these results show Labor does have some grounds for hope.

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