|May poll - the quarterly quants|
As of the week beginning May 13 the federal opposition had declined in popularity compared to our poll in December last year by somewhere in the order of 3%. This is distinct from Newspoll which shows the level of support at the end of last year as almost identical to what it is now, with the distinction that they also show the coalition vote increasing significantly and then declining again within that same time period.
Our First Preference Index above, which zero-based the various political party votes in September 2008 shows relative movements. While the Liberals have dropped back and Labor increased, we are still looking at a very wide gap between the two.
The following tables are based on our sample, adjusted for voting intention so that it mirrors the electorate at large.
Julia Gillard continues to be highly unpopular
Tony Abbott, while not popular, certainly does well by comparison.
And also just wins the preferred Prime Minister question.
These results align with our two-party preferred result for the coalition of 52% to 48% against Labor.
While public debate takes the inevitability of a coalition government after the next election for granted, even with the government's dire first preference polling, these results show Labor does have some grounds for hope.