Research by John Black confirms that Labor lost the Christian voters it gained last election, but did better with atheists and agnostics. But the Christians were more potent, living in key electorates. Non-believers were highly likely to be Greens voters.

Mugs are what most of my colleagues in the media are. Most media are  reporting internal ALP polling which shows that the government has 52 percent of the two-party vote, but is doing poorly in marginals in Queensland, New South Wales and West Australia. They give this polling credence and say that the election will be close.

Gary Morgan is back to getting results closer to what everyone thinks the result is likely to be. His latest poll shows a swing back to the Coalition of 6.5 points in just a week and a two-party preferred vote to Labor of 51%.

Galaxy also gets into the act with marginal seat polling, predicting a net 18 seats to the Coalition. Mumble has a summary on his blog.