The Australian has further analysis of Newspoll today which apparently shows that Labor support has slumped enough in Queensland and New South Wales to cost them the election. Dennis Shanahan puts this down to a "state of origin" effect with the sacking of Kevin Rudd being presumed to affect the Queensland vote and the elevation of Tony Abbott affecting the New South Wales vote. Interesting theory, but is it true?

Newspoll has reported for the last weekend and says that the Coalition and Labor are neck and neck at 50% each. This is in line with Galaxy, and closer to Nielsen than Morgan. It tends to confirm what the qual is telling us, which is that this election is looking like being quite close.

The latest Nielsen poll, results published in the Fairfax papers on July 31, gives the election to the Coalition by 52% to 48%. It's at the outer edge of where the polling results have been and could be just a statistical fluke. Some commentators say the result represents too large a move and that moves like this don't happen in the real world. So why do these commentators bother with polls if they know what happens in the real world better than the polls?

This is the election where Galaxy may prove or cruel their reputation. They have consistently put Labor lower than the other polling organisations, although still within the polling margin of error.