|
Tuesday, 20 June 2006 03:49 |
Written by Graham Young
|
These are the notes used for on-air analysis on Wednesday 14th June. The sample is much larger now (2,058 as of a minute ago), and some of the percentages have changed slightly. A fuller report will be compiled after close of business this Wednesday 21st June.
- Newspoll (pdf 84 kb) says that 51% of Australians are opposed to nuclear power generation in Australia and 38% approve, while Morgan Gallup says that 49% approve while only 37% disapprove. Why the difference? All in the question. Morgan frames it as greenhouse abatement.
- Newspoll has their own glitch – they ask about support for uranium mining, but only give three choices – status quo, much more, or none at all. On this basis 22% are totally opposed, 44% go for three mines and 22% want no restrictions.
- What is John Howard doing? Is there a chance that he could win the debate?
- Our polling combined with the Morgan and Newspoll figures suggest not.
- 476 responses analysed up until 4:53 this evening. Many more coming in. Heavy Greens bias – 31%; and male – 60%.
- Will send the results to the Government’s inquiry.
- Our sample disapproves of the inquiry, but taking skew into account suggests that the community is in on balance in favour, but not as strongly as Morgan suggests.
- Many have made up their mind that they don’t want nuclear at all, others see it as a tactic by the government to take attention away from other issues, and some see it as biased because of personnel and the fact that it is not looking at all alternative fuel sources.
- Those who approve cite need to investigate properly, many have made up their minds and see it as a way forward for nuclear, others see it as a way of taking partisanship out of the issue. At the same time there is also cynicism about Howard’s motives.
- Interesting dissonances when it comes to whether we should export uranium, and whether nuclear power is a good idea for Australia, or for other countries.
- 49% disapprove of other countries using nuclear, but this rises to 59% when they are asked about Australia using it.
- 44% disapprove of mining more uranium, but this is less than the 49% who disapprove of overseas countries using it, and the 59% who disapprove of Australia. Means that some of those who disapprove don’t have a problem with increased production!
Quotes:
- “Despite the probability that the PM needed to get a story on the agenda to justify his trip to USA (I heartily approve of our PMs playing a role on the world stage), a properly constituted enquiry would be most appropriate because the implicit issues are most important and should be in the public arena. This inquiry is constituted in a similar vein to the Repubic referendum and the Cole Inquiry!†Male, Undecided, normally Liberal, 61+
- “If it is an enquiry to gather facts and review the science, well & good. If it is for another purpose, probably no harm done but the debate is not progressed.†Male, Liberal previously Labor, 41-50
- “Overall an examination of nuclear power is needed and timely, however I am not sure that the personelle and terms of reference will meet the requirements of such an inquiry.†Female, Labor moving to undecided, 18-30
- “Both sides need to air their arguments clearly and precisely - not shout scary slogans†Male, Liberal going Labor, 51-60.
- “Not safe, waste is a problem†Female, Undecided, 51-60
- “I believe there are other options available that do not cause the problem of waste storage that the nuclear industry does.†Female, Undecided from Liberal, 61+
- “It is a distraction from rising interest rates and the work place reforms†Male, Liberal going to Labor, 51-60
- “I do not think the enquiry is broad enough - it should include comparing the feasability of solar, wind and other energy sources in comparison with nuclear. I am also worried about the bias of the PM's team†Female, Greens going undecided, 51-60.
Word counts:
Waste 64
Danger 24
Dirty 9
Bias 21
Clean 27
Good 20
Greenhouse 19
Safe 58
|
|
Thursday, 01 June 2006 01:41 |
Written by Graham Young
|
These are the notes used in today's on-air analysis. We are still taking responses and will incorporate the revised figures into the final report.
Quantitative
Total Sample
1. This proposal is not receiving a large “head nodâ€.
2. The proposal has a slightly negative effective across the whole sample – minus 2%
3. The sample is more balanced than usual – 16% Greens, 27% Labor, 20% Liberal and 18% National
4. Best Liberal representation in one of our samples for a while – suggests Liberals are more motivated on this issue than Nationals of Labor.
5. Both Liberals and Nationals are more positive than negative on this proposal – 51% of Liberals and 46% of Nationals approve, while only 9% and 13% disapprove. However, worrying for them that 40% and 41% are neither more nor less likely to vote for the new entity than the party they now vote for.
6. Leadership still an issue. 35% want Lawrence Springborg, 33% have no opinion, 9% Caltabiano and 8% Flegg.
Swinging Sample
I analysed those Liberal, National and Labor voters who were changing their vote since last election from one side of the divide to the other. Results here are interestingly different.
1. 39% are more likely to vote for the new entity, and 18% less likely, making it a net 21% in favour.
2. Still 42% are still neither more nor less likely.
3. Best leader is still Springborg – 53%. Next best is Flegg – 16%. Then Caltabiano – 3%.
Conclusion
Not enough in this proposal to risk running it without widespread approval within the parties. Will make it more likely for swinging voters to vote against Labor, but the majority of voters couldn’t care less about it. Best combination to gain swinging voters would be Springborg leader with Flegg deputy.
Qualitative
I’ve done the qual just on the swinging contingent. A variety of points of view.
Two failure don’t equal one success:
“Two horses arses do not make a whole and healthy horse.†Labor voter, traditional Liberal, female, 51-60
Seen it all before:
“I cannot for the life of me believe that they are trotting out this rubbish again, I have voted for a Beattie government for the last 3 elections, he has blown all creditability as far as I'm concerned, last week topped everything, the standing of politicians in the community is fairly low, without tinkering with decriminalising lying to committies, city Liberals don't want to take on some of the redneck policies of the boys from the bush, they just need to do it through the polls and become the senior party in the coalition under the leadership of Caltabiano†Liberal voter, voted Labor last election, male, 51-60
Opposed to National Party influence:
“I was thinking of perhaps voting Liberal but I would NEVER vote for a party whose leader is Lawrence Springbord or National Party affiliates.I think they represent Qld of old,lack of education and bad image and ideas.†Liberal voter, voted Labor last election, female, 61+
Strength in size:
“qld politics is rather lop sided at moment, need a larger second party†National voter, Greens last election, female, 51-60
Liberals and Nats working together:
“The merger shows an ability for the Liberals and Nationals to work together and I think this is important.†National voter, Labor last election, male, 51-60
They’ll fight:
“The party would have a larger membership base with possible difference of opinions, which may cause debates to become more of an infight.†Undecided, Greens last election, male, 31-40
Less democracy, not more:
“I do not believe in less but in more Parties. Good democracy thrives on diversity, not simplicity.†Undecided, no normal voting pattern, female, 51-60.
Total sample pivots
| Age |
Female |
Male |
Grand Total |
| 18-30 |
2% |
3% |
5% |
| 31-40 |
3% |
8% |
11% |
| 41-50 |
8% |
11% |
20% |
| 51-60 |
12% |
21% |
33% |
| 61+ |
13% |
18% |
31% |
| Grand Total |
39% |
61% |
100% |
| First_Preference |
Total |
| Christian
Democrats |
0% |
| Democrats |
2% |
| Family First |
3% |
| Greens |
16% |
| I don't
wish to answer |
1% |
| Independent |
7% |
| Labor |
27% |
| Liberal |
20% |
| National |
18% |
| One Nation |
1% |
| Other |
1% |
| Undecided |
5% |
| Grand Total |
100% |
| Likely_to_vote |
Greens |
Independent |
Labor |
Liberal |
National |
Grand Total |
| I do not
wish to answer |
0% |
4% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
| Much less
likely |
28% |
35% |
31% |
7% |
7% |
21% |
| Much more
likely |
5% |
9% |
4% |
43% |
33% |
19% |
| Neither
more nor less likely |
43% |
43% |
43% |
40% |
41% |
42% |
| No opinion |
0% |
0% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
| Somewhat
less likely |
16% |
0% |
13% |
2% |
6% |
9% |
| Somewhat
more likely |
9% |
9% |
6% |
8% |
13% |
8% |
| Grand Total |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| More |
14% |
17% |
10% |
51% |
46% |
28% |
| Less |
43% |
35% |
44% |
9% |
13% |
29% |
| Net |
-29% |
-17% |
-34% |
42% |
33% |
-2% |
| Leader |
Greens |
Independent |
Labor |
Liberal |
National |
Grand Total |
| Bob Quinn |
6% |
0% |
4% |
4% |
1% |
4% |
| Bruce Flegg |
4% |
10% |
6% |
19% |
2% |
8% |
| I do not
wish to answer |
11% |
6% |
10% |
2% |
2% |
7% |
| Jeff Seeney |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
| Lawrence
Springborg |
15% |
13% |
16% |
50% |
76% |
36% |
| Michael
Caltabiano |
6% |
10% |
7% |
17% |
6% |
9% |
| Mike Horan |
4% |
6% |
4% |
2% |
1% |
3% |
| No opinion |
53% |
55% |
52% |
4% |
9% |
33% |
| Grand Total |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
|
Wednesday, 17 May 2006 22:18 |
Written by Graham Young
|
These are the notes used for our interview this morning with Madonna King and the ABC Radio Brisbane Morning Program. I'll do the analysis up more formally later.
My read on the total sample is that many of our respondents feel personally squeezed by rising costs including petrol and interest rates (the last must be anticipatory) and don't think that the tax cuts allow them to do much more than catch-up, although most of them rate it as good for them personally and bad for the country. Explains why the government hasn’t gotten much of a bounce from the budget.
Our sample is also more concerned with Health and Education than they are with tax cuts. Interestingly, payments to stay-at-home and working mums are not a high priority, nor looking after the elderly. Will the older and middle to lower demographics stay bought?
BTW, Julia Gillard is the runaway winner for ALP leader, followed by Rudd, Keating and Beazley. Shorten on a bit less than 5% proves you need more than a walk-on part in a mining disaster to grab the public imagination.
On the other side of the ledger Malcolm Turnbull is the second runner after Howard, not Costello. Even amongst online Liberal voters Costello is only just ahead, but the Labor, Greens and Democrats overwhelm him in favour of Turnbull over the whole sample.
- Sample heavily left-leaning. 31% ALP, 27% Greens, 15% Liberal, 5%
National. Older than average demographic, with highest proportion (31%)
between 51 and 60 years of age. Males outnumbered females almost two-to
one in the plus 51 age group, and by 60% to 40% overall.
- Most believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction.
This aligns with voting intention. 21% think we’re heading in the right
direction, compared to 70% who think the reverse.
- Only 25% approved of the budget, versus 58% who disapproved.
However, 89% of Liberals and 88% of Nationals approved. A balanced
sample would have shown a majority in support.
- However 37% said that they would be better off because of the
budget. So 12% benefited but altruistically thought it was a bad budget.
- Only 24% thought it would be good for the economy. Again,
Liberals 81% of Liberals thought it would be good, as well as 88% of
Nationals. A balanced sample would therefore think it was good for the
economy.
- When it came to alternatives, most favoured either tax cuts, or
increased spending on health and education. Because of the bias in the
sample, this was distorted. Making allowance for the bias, tax cuts and
services were probably pretty evenly matched.
- Incentives to working or non-working spouses or to older
Australians were not well-supported. Infrastructure also rated very
well with a less intense feeling in favour of it than services.
- 71% disapproved of Howard’s performance, but 58% disapproved of
Beazley’s as well. However, 91% of Coalition voters approve, so sample
bias at play again.
- 35% want Julia Gillard as leader, compared to 20% for Kevin Rudd,
15% for Paul Keating and 10% for Kim Beazley. None of the above is only
12%
- 172% and 75% of Coalition voters want Howard as leader, but only
19% of the total sample. Malcolm Turnbull tops the total sample at 20%,
followed by Howard, then Costello. Abbott and Downer both get 1% each.
- When it comes to household budgets there are a few obvious
factors:
- Many households find themselves under price-pressure from petrol,
interest rates and food prices (no-one much mentions rent). They find
the tax deductions derisory.
- Some households are earning lots of money and traveling well -
they thought that tax cuts were great.
- Because they can’t see that they can earn enough after tax to pay
for their needs, they would prefer the government to pay them for them.
- Word counts and quotes on the household budget issue provide
quantitative support for the issues being caused by higher petrol and
money prices with petrol being by far the larger issue.
Petrol 116
Fuel 243
Oil 5
Inflation 41
Interest 122
Rates 99
Rent 42
Student 41
Pension 271
Retiree 66
"The tax cuts will help to ease the
squeeze so to speak. I have grandchildren so the extra child care
will be good for us all and there are incentives for my daughter to go
back to work when her son starts full time school. I am looking at the
more longer term benefits of the budget rather than the what's in it
for me right now view. there will still be a surplus for the next
several yeras and I think that is responsible and the right way to go."
Liberal, Male, 41-50
"I'm just not sure. As much as I am in a bracket that gets a 'saving'
on how much tax I pay each fortnight, I don't see that as improving my
financial position - in terms of short term - home mortgages have just
increased (more so than the tax saving) - and in long term, I don't
think that an improvement in my own financial position is a good thing
in the big picture of the country's health, for eg. I would prefer the
$9-10 per pay packet to go directly to medicare and the public hospital
system." Greens, female, 31-40
"Rising prices at every level of living then a slight tax benefit!!!!
You have to be joking. After the GST the goverment have been completely
rolling in money yet they are tighter than ever & services are
lacking more & more funding." Greens, Male, 18-30
"No tax on super is a bit late for me as a self funded retiree for the
last 9 years and being taxed on my benefit. I also do not have access
to a health card for pharmaceuticals as I am means tested out of
elegibility" Greens, Male, 61+
"With the increase in fuel costs that have already happened up around
21 cents per litre and interest rates up .25% costing an extra $10 per
week the tax cuts have already been spent." Greens, Male, 41-50
"I am a mature aged woman in the middle income range who works
part-time to finance studies that will hopefully lend me enough
credibillity to take on consultancy work. I support my daughter
and son-in-law one is a student and the other an adult apprentice, my
husband is a TPI pensioner. I can't live on what the governemtn
would pay me to be a carer for my husband or to be a student we have
manged in the past and I will continue to manage in the future.
The minute amount of money I may be entitled to in the buget will
probably be eaten up in fuel costs." Greens, Female, 51-60
Those who say their personal position is significantly improved appear
to live in high income households or be on the verge of retirement.
|
|
Wednesday, 26 April 2006 06:57 |
Written by Graham Young
|
These are the notes used for our on-air analysis on Wednesday 19th April.
General Comments:
- The support for the public system has declined even more on the
last survey, even though the survey was chock a block with Labor
voters and teachers. Agree/Strongly Agree headed in right direction
down from 42% to 28% in 12 months.
- Support for public v private schools for your own kids still
looks around 50/50, after adjustment for Labor/Green bias in the sample
(I think Graham is doing a check here), with two thirds of left wing
voters supporting the public system and two thirds of coalition voters
supporting the private system.
- Teachers loved the questionnaire, especially teachers in
Government schools. The overall numbers were up more than ten-fold on
the last survey.
- These teachers tended to support the public system, in principal,
but, in practice, thought it had had it, with insufficient funding, run
down buildings, excessive class sizes, trendy syllabuses and not enough
of the basics, lack of male teachers, as some of the problems
mentioned.
- Many respondents seem to think the Federal Government is to blame
for problems with the state education system … it seems the blame
shifting we are seeing in health is having some benefits in education,
for the Beattie Government. Which leads to the last point, due to
Federal Funding of Private School education …
- There is perception, mixed into this framework, that the state
Government has started to delay building public schools in fast growing
areas, leaving the cost burden increasingly to the Federal Government
and the private school system … a comment we have heard from other
states. This is good news for the private school system, but makes for
a pretty dismal report card for the State Labor Government, if it is
correct.
Right Direction?
The majority of those who strongly agree the education system is headed in the right direction also would send their kids to a public school – 31 out of a total of 42. But a very large proportion of these respondents has major concerns about the public system and simply rejects the non-public system in principle…
"Schools are asked to do more and more in an environment where proper parenting has been falling away for many years. This comment from a Labor voting Teacher in the public system, who would send his children to a public school, but who went on to discuss the biggest issues facing primary and secondary schools as … literacy and numeracy, along with a lack of proper science education by qualified science teachers."
This is from a rock solid Labor voting teacher in the public system! Half of those who strongly agree the system is headed in the right direction, also think it is under funded and that this under funding is reflected run down buildings, and oversized classes. Many also think there aren’t enough male teachers and that this is not appropriate for public schools, as many public school children are living with their mothers and have no male role models…
"Education has been feminised too much (the pendulum thing) and boys are missing out. Outcome based education is a complete waste of time, accountability gone mad, and once again teachers are stressed and the students miss out. This is from a male teacher. This is from a solid Labor voting male teacher, who sends his kids to a private school … because I teach in a state school and the amount of time spent on a minority of kids who do not value education , for one reason or another, is ludicrous. powers to discipline have been taken away. students know they don't have to show respect, so some don't. what are you going to do about it? Nothing."
Some who strongly agree the system is headed in the right direction (9 out of 42) think the public system has had it, and regard the Catholic or Private system as successful, by comparison. So, the system they are talking about is no longer the Government or public system. That’s how bad it is, for Government. For example …
"I am a teacher in the catholic system and feel we haven't hit the golden secret yet but are well on our way. Children are valued as individuals, taught in a more positive, individual based manner and assessed against set outcomes. They are not judged as failures. There has been a return to some of the basics and this can only be good when included with some of the more wholistic educational practises." (This teacher, unfortunately, couldn’t spell holistic - Private system support, Liberal to Independent).
Most of those who think the education system is headed in the wrong direction, support the private school education system, but many don’t…
"Public education is being left behind under this (Howard) government. They say the extra funding is about providing choice to parents but one look at the fees rising consistently shows that is not the case. Meanwhile, those already disadvantaged will now fall further behind as the standard of public education falls due to poor funding arrangements. If we want to create a two-tier society then we're heading in the right direction. I do not share this (Howard) government's goals hence I strongly disagree that we are heading in the right direction." – State system supporter, Democrat to Labor
This is a typical view of those who think the public system is headed in the wrong direction…
"I am a secondary school teacher who has also taught at TAFE and Uni and am deeply concerned about numeracy and literacy levels, behaviour problems and a lack of focus and concentration in the majority of high school students.- Private School Supporter, Green to Green, who also said on the Private school question: My experience of teaching in public schools would not encourage me to have my children attend one."
"As an after school tutor from ages 8 - 15 both in English and Maths, I am still astounded, but not completely surprised, how many children have neither the basic skills to do simple arithmetic or have sufficient grasp of basic grammar and spelling. Green to Undecided, private school supporter."
"The Queensland State Government is relying on the private/church schools in meeting the needs of communities in rapidly expanding areas such as Hervey Bay. The State schools at both primary and secondary level are absolutely full to the brim, with class sizes ever increasing, but staff, both teachers and support, and resources allocated decreasing. Other to National, private school supporter. "
|
|
Wednesday, 26 April 2006 04:01 |
Written by Graham Young
|
These are the notes used for our on-air analysis on 5th April.
Dot points
- Sample leans to the left but is reasonably balanced by gender and
age.
- Labor on 26%, Liberal 13%, National 22% and Greens 18%.
- Shows two-party preferred win to Labor 51% to 49%. Given sample
bias this is a loss.
- Only 20% of sample said they would not preference.
- Strength of Coalition vote outside the South-East. In Brisbane
sample shows 60% vote to Labor after prefs.
- Swing appears to be about 9% to 11% away from Labor on first
prefs.
- Only 29% of voters think the state is heading in the right
direction and 56% percent think it is heading in the wrong direction.
- Of those who think it is heading in the right direction, their
answers are most frequently in the "Yes, but..." format. Significant
issues for them are Health, Economy, Growth, Population,
Infrastructure, Education.
- For those who think it is heading in the wrong direction, their
issues are Health, Education, Water, Infrastructure, Planning,
Environment, Growth, Population.
- Beattie is viewed unfavourably by 30%, unfavourably by 57%.
Springborg is 33%, 40% and Quinn 11%, 54%.
- ALP voters narrowly prefer Beattie of Bligh 26% to 25%,
Springborg easily beats Seeney 36% to 3%, but 44% don’t want any. Quinn
comes in last 7% after Flegg 18% and Caltabiano 14%, but 43% want none
of them.
- A huge hesitation negative for Labor is Beattie 116 responses,
while Springborg is a negative for Nats 53 and Quinn for Libs 76
responses.
- The Coalition and their partners are significant negatives for
National Party and Liberal Party.
Voting intention this election
| First_Pref | Total |
| Democrats | 4% |
| Family First | 1% |
| Greens | 18% |
| Independent | 9% |
| Labor | 26% |
| Liberal | 13% |
| National | 22% |
| None of them | 4% |
| One Nation | 1% |
| Other | 1% |
| Grand Total | 100% |
After preferences this is 51% to Labor. 20% of voters will not allocate.
Greens – Highest concentrations in from city out to Toowong and Chelmer
Also West End. Another concentration in the Sunshine Coast Hinterland (Maleny).
National Party mostly represented outside the Eastern Corner. Two-thirds of their vote is from rural areas.
Liberal Party is half Brisbane, and 50% Brisbane and one-third Gold and Sunshine Coast.
Labor is half Brisbane, but only 15% from Gold and Sunshine Coasts.
2PP
Labor 51% to Coalition 49%. But in Brisbane this is Labor 60%, Coalition 40%, and even on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts ALP 57%. Strength of Coalition vote appears to be outside the south-east.
Approval of direction of the state
Those who say yes 214
Responses frequently in the “Yes, but…†format
Quotes:
“Overall, I agree e.g. good economic growth, stable interest rates, etc. However, the infrastructure to support the number of people now moving and living in SEQ is appalling. There is inadequate spending on roads, trains, buses. The State School system is unbelievably underfunded as, it appears, may be the hospitals too.â€
“Just because I believe the state is basicly heading in the right direction it certainly dosn't mean that I believe that everything is OK, far from it , there are major problems in Health, mental health, childern services, education,electricty and water an area they just addressed at all, it great to have all these people moving up hear from southern states, as long as your staying ahead of the infustructure to maintain our standard of livingâ€
Those who say “No†415
|
|
