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Benchmark Part I
Wednesday, 26 April 2006 04:01 | Written by Graham Young

These are the notes used for our on-air analysis on 5th April.

Dot points

  1. Sample leans to the left but is reasonably balanced by gender and age.
  2. Labor on 26%, Liberal 13%, National 22% and Greens 18%.
  3. Shows two-party preferred win to Labor 51% to 49%. Given sample bias this is a loss.
  4. Only 20% of sample said they would not preference.
  5. Strength of Coalition vote outside the South-East. In Brisbane sample shows 60% vote to Labor after prefs.
  6. Swing appears to be about 9% to 11% away from Labor on first prefs.
  7. Only 29% of voters think the state is heading in the right direction and 56% percent think it is heading in the wrong direction.
  8. Of those who think it is heading in the right direction, their answers are most frequently in the "Yes, but..." format. Significant issues for them are Health, Economy, Growth, Population, Infrastructure, Education.
  9. For those who think it is heading in the wrong direction, their issues are Health, Education, Water, Infrastructure, Planning, Environment, Growth, Population.
  10. Beattie is viewed unfavourably by 30%, unfavourably by 57%. Springborg is 33%, 40% and Quinn 11%, 54%.
  11. ALP voters narrowly prefer Beattie of Bligh 26% to 25%, Springborg easily beats Seeney 36% to 3%, but 44% don’t want any. Quinn comes in last 7% after Flegg 18% and Caltabiano 14%, but 43% want none of them.
  12. A huge hesitation negative for Labor is Beattie 116 responses, while Springborg is a negative for Nats 53 and Quinn for Libs 76 responses.
  13. The Coalition and their partners are significant negatives for National Party and Liberal Party.

Voting intention this election

First_PrefTotal
Democrats4%
Family First1%
Greens18%
Independent9%
Labor26%
Liberal13%
National22%
None of them4%
One Nation1%
Other1%
Grand Total100%

After preferences this is 51% to Labor. 20% of voters will not allocate. Greens – Highest concentrations in from city out to Toowong and Chelmer Also West End. Another concentration in the Sunshine Coast Hinterland (Maleny). National Party mostly represented outside the Eastern Corner. Two-thirds of their vote is from rural areas. Liberal Party is half Brisbane, and 50% Brisbane and one-third Gold and Sunshine Coast. Labor is half Brisbane, but only 15% from Gold and Sunshine Coasts.

2PP

Labor 51% to Coalition 49%. But in Brisbane this is Labor 60%, Coalition 40%, and even on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts ALP 57%. Strength of Coalition vote appears to be outside the south-east.

Approval of direction of the state

Those who say yes 214 Responses frequently in the “Yes, but…” format Quotes: “Overall, I agree e.g. good economic growth, stable interest rates, etc. However, the infrastructure to support the number of people now moving and living in SEQ is appalling. There is inadequate spending on roads, trains, buses. The State School system is unbelievably underfunded as, it appears, may be the hospitals too.” “Just because I believe the state is basicly heading in the right direction it certainly dosn't mean that I believe that everything is OK, far from it , there are major problems in Health, mental health, childern services, education,electricty and water an area they just addressed at all, it great to have all these people moving up hear from southern states, as long as your staying ahead of the infustructure to maintain our standard of living” Those who say “No” 415
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