The race is tight between the two major parties on paper, but at this stage I’d prefer to be Peter Dutton than Anthony Albanese.
The Coalition seems to have a greater wave of enthusiasm behind it than any other group apart from Independents.

Compared to the last election Coalition supporters have strongly increased their rate of participation and ALP voters have declined. Greens and Nationalists are also down. Independents are up.

(To read the whole report click here).

This is good news for the Coalition, but not necessarily bad news for Labor as the Independents tend to favour them. What they are potentially losing in first preferences they may retain through second and later preferences. It also presages well for their negotiations with independents in a potential hung parliament.

When we adjust our sample to mirror external quantitative polling, we find that it leans slightly to the left of Newspoll and Roy Morgan giving a 52%/48% two-party preferred result to Labor, rather than 49%/51% in Newspoll or 48%/52% according to Roy Morgan. They tend to distribute preferences according to the last election, which can distort their result, so our sample might more accurately reflect votes in the community.

The most important issue to strong Greens and Labor voters which unites them is climate change. They are joined here by the Independents. For Coalition and Nationalists there are two main issues – government spending, and immigration, and a sense that the government has lost control.

The issues where the election will be won, which are the ones both sides care about, are cost-of-living, as it manifests in housing costs, and energy prices. Nuclear is also at the centre of debate.

One issue that appears as a major issue, only in the question on whether the country is heading in the right direction, is the question of Israel. It is a reasonably strong concern for Coalition and Nationalist voters when worrying about the direction of the country but disappears as an issue when thinking of the most important issue in general, and the most important for the election.
Peter Dutton seems to be seen as more effective at his job than Anthony Albanese. While they both receive negative net ratings the Prime Minister is further underwater at -27% than the Opposition Leader on -12%. However, they are tied on the question of preferred PM at 47% each, perhaps signalling that people differentiate between what it takes to be an effective opposition leader versus an effective prime minister.

While respondents don’t think either party has done enough to win the next election, they rate Labor slightly ahead of the Coalition (net -12% to -16%). This is a function of Independent voters being more convinced by the government than Nationalists are by the opposition.

The strongest personal quality associated with Albanese is “weak”, while for Dutton the factor that defines him is “nuclear”. That suggests the nuclear issue has overwhelmed his personality, plus most other issues, not necessarily a position he should want to be in. Some people see Albanese as a strong leader, so the sense of weakness is moderated. For Dutton the word “weak” doesn’t appear.
Similar issues are at play in the decision as to who is the better prime minister. Those who favour Anthony Albanese are more likely to cite “Dutton” or “Peter Dutton” as a reason for voting for “Albo” or “Albanese” as they call him. This is negative reasoning. Dutton’s supporters are more likely to stress his positive qualities and not to mention Albanese at all.

Only a bare majority (53%) of Labor voters expect Labor to win outright, versus 65% of Coalition voters. That doesn’t mean Labor voters have thrown in the towel, but 41% thinks the next parliament will be hung. 29% of Coalition voters believe it will be hung. Overall the figures are 40% think it will be a hung parliament, 36% Coalition outright and 25% Labor.
Overall, 47% want a Coalition win, 39% a Labor one, and 14% a hung parliament.

So, a close election fought on cost-of-living, with Labor being viewed better than their leader who is ineffectual compared to Dutton. Both leaders are not closely identified with the issues that seem likely to determine the election. The Liberals are confident, and the Independents sniff the possibility of becoming kingmakers. Nuclear is not the deciding factor, but if the Opposition leader doesn’t win, then it may well be blamed for his failure.

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