Queensland quant: voting intentions and leaders November 09

Sunday, 13 December 2009 07:36 | Written by Graham Young

(For the technically inclined the number of respondents is roughly 679 for each sample. It varies by a few, because not everyone answers every question.)

The last time we got a two-party preferred result on our polls like this was in the Brisbane City Council election when Campbell Newman won convincingly.

If these swings that are implied from our research persist until election day, then it will be a big rout for Labor. A uniform swing of 5% against them means they would lose the seats of Chatsworth, Everton, Broadwater, Cook, Barron River, Whitsunday, Toowoomba North, Southport, Townsville, Pumicestone, Springwood, Cairns, Mansfield, Ferny Grove, Albert, Pine Rivers, Kallangur, Mt Ommaney, and Burleigh. However, seats above that figure that have been won by the coalition in the past include Mt Coot-tha, Redcillfe, Mt Isa, Mundingburra, Greenslopes, Ashgrove, Stafford (when it was Everton), Keppel, Mulgrave and Yerongpilly (when it was Yeronga). That's a total ot 29 prospective seats.

Voters are also dissatisfied with the direction in which the state is heading. Only 17% are happy with the direction, while 75% aren't.

The nub of the problem for Labor appears to be Premier Anna Bligh. Her approval rating on our figures is 16% and her total disapproval 76% giving her a net approval of -60%. Langbroek is going a bit better with 25% approving and a relatively modest 34% disapproving, which means his approval rating is still negative at -10%..

This means there is some hope for Labor. They are doing poorly, but their opponents are not doing well either.

The graph below illustrates the relative approval and disapproval figures.

We also asked voters who they approved of as premier. When asked to choose between Anna Bligh and John-Paul Langbroek, 48% went for Langbroek, 41% for Bligh as preferred premier, but 21% were unsure. So Langbroek would likely be the replacement, but with less than a 50% endorsement. That gives Bligh a little bit of hope, but not much.

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Comments

0 #1 Comment — Hasbeen 2009-12-14 13:03

I think it's really Beattie the voters have finally woken up to, & turned against.

Bligh really is just Beattie, with boobs, & has focused the discontent.

Beattie got his wish. Somebody, worse than him, to make him look better in retrospect.

0 #2 Comment — Big Al 2009-12-14 17:43

I dont think Anna Bligh need worry too much about the next election. Most of her objectors are Labor party people, and despite all the Huff and Puff and foot stamping going on by this group they will still vote Labor at the next election.Anna will still have the last laugh ??

0 #3 Comment — Revenue Replacement 2009-12-14 19:16

Mismanag e the economy. Sell off assets. Send money off to GOCs where it is squandered and gambled away on ventures - without appropriate scrutiny.

WHERE IS THE MONEY HONEY?

Why are we now getting slugged for huge increases to everything (20.00 more a week on a commuter bus ticket!, water, power, parking, registration... you name it, the Treasurer has found a way to fleece it to replace the revenue lost from the sale of public assets.

Where does it end! The public looses twice, first the loss of the public owned, revenue-generat ing asset, second, as the government dreams up ways to force the public to replace the revenue they have lost through a stunning array of price hikes on everything.

Its getting hard to see how many of us can afford to come to work everyday.

0 #4 Comment — Gary 2009-12-14 19:54

From outside the State, Anna Bligh is reported in the media as trying to make some contact with local situations that have been poorly managed. An A from me to recognise things are wrong in many places. To then try to provide direction where the Public Authorities and Local Governments have been failing, is the way forward. I will accept local decision on her government's success.

0 #5 Comment — Anne Walmsley 2009-12-16 03:21

I didn't think Bligh won the election - I felt Langbroek lost it.

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