Budget surplus - the Quants

Wednesday, 07 December 2011 22:36 | Written by Graham Young

In last week's Mid-Year Economic and Financial Outlook statement Wayne Swan promised to bring the budget back into surplus. How important is this promise to voters? We asked our panel and had 921 responses and apparently it is not that important at all.

Would you agree or disagree that the government should run a budget surplus in the 2012/2013 financial year?

Budget_Surplus_Agree_11_12_07

So, for something that appears to be very important to the treasurer, the community is almost evenly split between those who think it is important and those who don't, but with almost one-third neutral.

Would you agree or disagree that the government should run a budget surplus in the 2012/2013 financial year? (By first preference vote).

Budget_Surplus_Agree_By_First_Pref_11_12_07

This table shows that only Liberal and National voters are on balance in favour (but notice that the percentage of Liberals who agree is still less than 50%), while Labor voters, and especially Greens voters are opposed.

The next table shows the percentages of those who think that the government is actually likely to achieve a surplus.

How likely is it that Wayne Swan will actually produce a budget surplus in the 2012/2013 financial year?

Budget_Surplus_Likely_11_12_07

Not only are a lot of voters not particularly concerned to see a budget surplus, but 58% of them think it unlikely that the treasurer will deliver one.

All of the above nets out to a position where the promise of a budget surplus made fewer people more likely to vote Labor compared to those who were less likely.

Budget_Surplus_Change_Vote_11_12_07

Dissecting it by voting intention shows a divergence between Labor voters, who on balance are strengthened in their intention, Liberal voters who are much less likely to vote for the government, and Greens, who are also less likely. But as the Greens aren't likely to vote Liberal, and the Liberal votes were never really available to Labor, perhaps the constituency this is finally aimed at, beside the commentators, is the Labor one and those voting independent.

Budget_Surplus_Change_Vote_By_First_Pref_11_12_07