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Saturday, 27 November 2010 18:42 |
Written by Graham Young
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Public Transport and Law and Order appear to have been the two most important issues to Liberal voters, and as the Liberals seem to have won, the deciding issues. I have been watching the ABC coverage as I write this and it makes it even clearer why public transport was an important issue.
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Wednesday, 24 November 2010 22:34 |
Written by Graham Young
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Our quants tend to line up with the telephone polling that Nielsen, Morgan and Newspoll have been publishing. Not that the absolute numbers fall in line, but the theoretical movement since the last election is similar.We had 282 responses, which is a little small for me to do the same manipulations that I do with larger samples, so I've generally treated this one as three separate focus groups with each of Labor, Liberal and Greens voters.
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Saturday, 06 November 2010 17:57 |
Written by Graham Young
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I've plotted the latest quantitative results from our polling and it is a brutal story for Labor. In the 2 years since we've been tracking our respondents Labor has lost around 33 percent of its first preference vote, unlike the Liberals and Greens who have both gained more than 30 percent.
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Saturday, 06 November 2010 10:10 |
Written by Graham Young
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Not everyone in the electorate is sad to witness the demise of the Liberal-Labor duopoly.
Before the August election, collective wisdom was that voters wanted one or the other party in power, making the present hung parliament an aberration.
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Thursday, 09 September 2010 20:13 |
Written by Graham Young
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Terry Wilson is one of our panel and he has obviously got the polling bug. He's sent me an email about an informal poll that he conducted in his home town with young people. He finds that 82% of potential first time voters didn't actually vote. They also tended to favour Labor over the Coalition. If they had voted, and their vote had been similar in other electorates, it would probably have changed the result of the election.
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Monday, 23 August 2010 22:12 |
Written by Graham Young
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The protest vote had nothing to do with this election. It's a bum rap. Some recent elections in Australia have been won on the basis of protest votes, but there are clear fingerprints when this happens. I've dusted the evidence and the fingerprints aren't there.
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Saturday, 21 August 2010 11:53 |
Written by Graham Young
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2007 was the first charisma election for Australians in 35 years. Never since Gough Whitlam had there been so much focus on the leader and celebrity endorsements.
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Friday, 20 August 2010 11:39 |
Written by Graham Young
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Last election we looked at the vote of people who were Christian. This showed that they had a greater tendency to swing toward Kevin Rudd than the average, although on balance they were still supporting the Liberals.
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Thursday, 19 August 2010 21:05 |
Written by Internet Thinking
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Yesterday I posted results showing that Labor was winning on two issues where there were "head to head" policies from both sides - parental leave and broadband. This morning The Australian carried a piece from me looking at parental leave in much more detail, and putting the policy into context in Tony Abbott's campaign.
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