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Wednesday, 10 March 2010 16:18 |
Written by Graham Young
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We polled last week and got some interesting results. Mike Rann appears to be in some trouble. Electors have made a judgement on him, perceive him to be obsessed with spin and failing to deliver on his promises. The deciding factor may well be whether voters decide to trust the Liberals so as to change government, or vote for them so as to pull Rann back into line and perhaps engineer a hung parliament.
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Sunday, 07 March 2010 21:52 |
Written by Graham Young
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Christmas hasn't been kind to South Australian Premier Mike Rann. According to the December Newspoll, he had a satisfaction rating of 50 per cent, with only 38 per cent dissatisfied.
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Saturday, 27 February 2010 21:52 |
Written by Graham Young
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Our polling shows that there has been a decline in those people who believe that Global Warming is manmade, and that it will be catastrophic, since we polled last time. There has also been a collapse in support for the CPRS.
Faith in the official government view of global warming has been shaken with a statistically significant decline in concern about Global Warming. This is not matched by a corresponding growth in those who are unconcerned. Rather the decrease is being transferred to the numbers of those who are unsure.
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Saturday, 27 February 2010 17:26 |
Written by Graham Young
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Climate Change continues to be the most important issue, followed by Economy. The newcomer this quarter is Population which has zoomed from 7% to 22%. Health and Water have also had a substantial increase. One surprise appearance this month is Rudd. It's taken a while, but just as John Howard had a strong "loathe" factor, Kevin Rudd appears to be developing one too. Most prime ministers do, and Rudd has escaped this factor for a surprisingly long time.
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Wednesday, 24 February 2010 21:04 |
Written by Graham Young
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First Preference Index
Our January quantitative results tend to confirm what we have been seeing in the randomised telephone polls conducted by Newspoll and Nielsen - Labor is not travelling as well as it was, but it is still doing OK.
It's important to remember that our primary purpose is qualitative polling not quantitative, but because of the large scale of our responses it is possible to get an indication of general trends.
The First Preference Index is an attempt to measure those trends, and so far it is tracking pretty much in line with the polls.
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Tuesday, 26 January 2010 23:56 |
Written by Graham Young
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Tony Abbott's election seems to have produced a step change in the political conversation and the early evidence says this is a problem for the government, although not necessarily a benefit for the opposition. This is demonstrated by a large drop in approval for the Prime Minister among a sample of 1,989 voters surveyed by my organisation but little net move in that of the Opposition Leader.
This is deceptive. When you look more closely at the Liberal figure there has been a large shift here too, but in composition rather than size with stronger approval figures from conservative Coalition voters and a drop in approval from the centre.
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Monday, 14 December 2009 02:28 |
Written by Graham Young
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It looks like the relationship between Premier Anna Bligh and the electorate is terminal. The electorate has lost trust in her, and I suspect it doesn't matter what she does she can never win it back. This loss of trust stems from broken promises after the last election.
Bligh only just won the election by a negative campaign against opposition leader Lawrence Springborg, and declaring that only she could manage the economy. While there was a big swing against the government during the election campaign enough voters came back to the government by election day for the ALP to win. Events since have alienated a further slice of the electorate.
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Monday, 14 December 2009 01:12 |
Written by Graham Young
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While Queenslanders think the state is heading in the wrong direction, they are much more relaxed about the economy now than they were during the election, as the table below, which measures the relevance of concepts demonstrates.
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Sunday, 13 December 2009 07:36 |
Written by Graham Young
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The Queensland Labor Party has a huge problem. Its voter base is disillusioned and hollowed-out. Normally compared to the published quantitative polls our samples lean to the left. In Queensland they are increasingly leaning to the right. This means that Labor's supporters are demoralised and not prepared to come out for them, and conversely, the LNP's supporters are. energised Judging from our respondents enough have defected from Labor to infer a 5% swing away since the last election. Most are not changing to the LNP, but they are giving first preferences to Greens and not all are returning. The two tables below illustrate this.
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