Our longitudinal survey of the panel shows that at the end of January the Liberal Party’s standing had improved marginally. It also showed the Greens gaining significantly. This was before the Opposition’s decision to oppose the $42 billion stimulus package.

It is in line with Newspoll’s findings for January that there had been an improvement in the Liberals vote from December, but little change since the election. Since then Newspoll has shown the Opposition on a slight downwards trajectory.

(This piece is cross-posted from Ambit Gambit)

It is really too early to be predicting election results, but with the Queensland election scheduled for the 21st March, there's not much time left. So here is my "prediction". The Liberal National Party should win 12 to 15 seats, all other things being equal.

Labor has effectively been in power since 1989, with a brief interregnum between 1996 and 1998. Over the last 20 years it has run the state into the ground to such an extent that the same people who rated the toxic debt in the US AAA can only give its borrowings a AA+ rating, worse than even NSW which is the basket case state in Australia. It has also lost 9 members of parliament to retirement, most of whom will be replaced by what are effectively party hacks.

On this performance claims to be a "safe pair of hands" should reinforce the perception that this government is all spin and no substance. However the government has a huge margin of safety in terms of seats, and is favoured by an electoral redistribution that would allow it to win with just 49.5% of the vote.

You can get a good handle on how the seats fall from this analysis by David Fraser. Labor has 58 seats (since the preparation of these figures Labor lost one seat through defection to the Greens of Indooroopilly MLA Ronan Lee), and a working majority is 45, meaning it can lose 13 seats and still have a majority.

However, the redistribution last year notionally gives Labor three extra seats, so they can "lose" 16 and still govern in their own right.

My prediction is based on the redistributed seats, so it is for a line-ball result.

Many commentators are saying that the Liberal Nationals need to win 20 seats. This is wrong because it discounts the possibility of a minority government. The last Coalition government in Queensland was a minority government supported by Independent Liz Cunningham, the member for Gladstone. There are 5 independents in the Queensland Parliament, and most of them would be likely to favour the LNP over Labor, meaning that the LNP can govern with less than 45 seats in Parliament. The same is also true of Labor, although because of the composition of the Independents, they would have more trouble.

There is one caveat on my prediction - and that is that all other things should be equal. The LNP is in a good position, but it can easily squander it with the sort of inept campaigning that has characterised each of its campaigns since 1998.

They have to resist the temptation to make big spending promises and keep the focus on the government. This election isn't about whether Queensland needs a "safe pair of hands" or "the Queensland you want", but whether anyone could do worse than the government in managing the economy. This is not an election to raise expectations, but to lower them.

The federal government appears to have been reading our research, or similar, on an emissions trading scheme.

According to The Australian Online

TREASURER Wayne Swan has asked a powerful House economics committee to judge whether the proposed emissions trading scheme is the best way to tackle climate change...

The Australian Online understands the move may be an attempt to gather evidence to discredit opposition to emissions trading by the Coalition.

There is also speculation it is designed to pre-empt any findings of a Senate committee inquiry.

Perhaps.

It could also be a rational response to research like ours showing that for a variety of reasons voters across the spectrum are unhappy with it.

It is probably coincidental that the decision occurred only days after we released our research. But then again, I have started emailing summaries of key research to federal parliamentarians, and some have even been responding on our comments threads, so who knows?

My local state member Gary Fenlon (ALP) has a message for me - "Keep Greenslopes in safe hands".

The message presumably hopes to leverage the uncertainty that tough times bring, is consistent with the fact that Labor is regarded by voters as the best party to handle most issues, and exploits voter concerns that the Liberal National Party is an unknown, new force put together from two adversarial parties that has no strongly defined policies.

Parties exercise tight control over candidates these days, so I am assuming that someone at ALP HQ is reading the same sort of research that we are, and shaping his message accordingly.

I'm not sure what research the Liberal National Party is reading. A billboard at the Normanby Fiveways features two local candidates and Lawrence Springborg.

"We can deliver the Queensland we all want" the billboard proclaims.

While our research shows dissatisfaction with Anna Bligh it doesn't show any higher satisfaction levels with the Liberal National Party. And while it shows voters unsure of what the LNP stands for, it is not likely that they will find an assertion that the party "can deliver" credible, devaluing your whole message.

In these times of uncertainty, a "Queensland we all want" is also likely to be deemed a mirage. One that's "not too bad" is more likely to be seen as achieveable.

When you pitch a message that people don't believe you evoke what is called "cognitive dissonance". Disbelief at one statement is transferred to all other statements, even if they are true.

(For a brilliant example of how cognitive dissonance can be used, check out the British Conservative Party's exploitation of Gordon Brown's claim that Britain has "saved the world" to undermine his credibility on everything.)

We are not yet in an election, so there is time for the pitches to change. If they don't the new Liberal National Party is definitely heading for a debut loss.