It’s been just on 6 months since we did our last sample and while a few things have happened since then, nothing much has changed. The Liberal and National Parties have ceased to exist as separate entities, having formed the LNP. It’s also rained. Both of these appear to have had some effect on specific numbers, but the overall situation has not changed. According to our poll Anna Bligh is in trouble.

Before doing the analysis it is worth reviewing the nature of our panel. Our respondents aren’t completely representative of society, but they’re not unrepresentative either. What they are is a group of people who don’t belong to the political elite, but do think about politics and current affairs more than average. They are people who are much more likely than average to participate in public debates. So, what you get from this group is reflective of where the whole community may be when they start thinking about the issues. It is always important to remember that this is qualitative research, not quantitative.

The sample composition suggests a lack of enthusiasm from Labor voters for their state government. While Greens continue to be over-represented compared to the general community (23% against 8% last election), for one of the first times ever Labor voters are substantially under-represented at only 25% of the vote. By comparison LNP voters are 39%. Why are Labor voters so reticent?

These percentages represent no change on the last survey for the combined Liberal and National Party votes. On the one hand this should be discouraging for them, because it indicates no bounce from the merger. On the other hand, it contradicts the warnings that substantial numbers of former Liberal and National party voters would refuse to support the merged entity.

On the other side there has been a 5 percentage point deterioration in the first preference standing of the ALP. If this is borne out by the next statewide quantitative survey, then Labor is really in trouble.

When asked whether the state is heading in the right direction, 54% disagree and only 26% agree, a net -28%. This is fairly similar to the last poll when it was -24%. As the table at the right suggests, there has been some change in the issues that respondents find important. Six months ago infrastructure was the largest issue by far, driven in part by drought. Now it is not that far ahead of water and health, which have remained in second and third spot. So drought is still important, but the combined scores suggest not as urgent.

At the same time Economic, which is related to the global financial crisis, which wasn’t even mentioned as an issue last time is in fourth position at 7.1%. It’s almost as though when the government gets on top of one problem it gets no credit for it, and that problem is then replaced by another. In this case it is replaced by the international economy – which the government has no power to control.

Education has also increased in importance as an issue, although it is not obvious from comments why this would be the case.

When asked what issue was the most important in determining their vote Health (19%) was the most important, followed by Infrastructure (14.6%) and Education (11.2%). Infrastructure was almost as important last time, but Health has gone close to being twice as important, as has Education.

While the substitution of one issue for another is not encouraging for the government, we know from other surveys that Health and Education are stronger for the Government than the Opposition. How these issues are framed in the campaign could have a large effect on the outcome of the election.

Verbatims

"We do not live in a perfect world and thus we cannot expect miracles from our political masters. Queensland is progressing. Whether it is progressing in the right direction is a matter of opinion. From my own viewpoint I would like to see less spin..." (Male, Labor, 65-74)

"Water grid, brilliant. But owrried that we are losing too much bushland to development, when are we going to start going UP! The coastal heathlands near Maroochydore are being lost. Worried that we spend too much time doing crap like renaming the city" (Female, Labor, 45-54)

"Too many hap-hazard decisions being made for political reasons. Major infrastructure plans are too concentrated within south east Qld whilst the rest of the state has been left wanting. Went a decision is made, it announced but is either not done or take" (Male, LNP, 45-54)

"Failure to treet the need to deal with climate change as an opportunity rather than something to hide from." (Male, Greens, 64-75)

"The current Government has been reactive to infrastructure issues, and not proactive and thinking forward to what may be needed in the future. Also they are arrogant, especially in how the shire amalgamation issue was handled..." (Female, LNP, 45-54)

"Too many decisions have been put off to committee discussion or have been cancelled/deferred to suggest that ant decisions are other than to prepare for an election" (Male, LNP,55-64)

"1. Anna has not stood at the polls on her own merit 2. Can't follow through: Traviston Dam, Desalinisation, Children Hospital, etc 3. Desperately need intelligent infrastructure spending" (Male, LNP, 35-44)

"Where's the direction ? We're becalmed on the edge of the global financial crisis and about to get sucked in." (Male, LNP, 45-54)

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