'; ?> What motivates Queenslanders who head to the polls | What The People Want
What motivates Queenslanders who head to the polls
Sunday, 15 January 2012 20:47 | Written by Graham Young

Report_Image_12_01_17Queensland is poised to despatch the Bligh government. The question is how decisive this will be, and how soon Labor will deal itself back into a position where it can credibly mount a campaign for government at a future election.

A good result for Labor could put it only two terms away from government, and this is what the next state election is about.

A secondary issue is how well Bob Katter's Australian Party will poll. As its vote is built partly on a protest against mining, particularly coal seam gas, there are also implications for the commercial development of the state in this election.

While the two-party preferred vote is emphatically in the LNP's favour – probably in the vicinity of 59% to 41% after preferences - there are signs that they may be vulnerable to a protest vote which could rein their majority in significantly.

Factors which give the ALP some hope of doing better than this are:

  • The extremely high percentage who thinks the LNP will win (sixty-two per cent) versus those who think Labor will win (ten per cent).
  • A sharp deterioration in Campbell Newman's personal approval rating which is down 17 points since March 2011 to forty-one per cent while his disapproval rating has increased 16 points to forty-one per cent.
  • Continuing concerns about the viability and competence of the LNP
  • Concern about possible LNP policies, or lack of knowledge of them.

Bob Katter is currently unlikely to win any seats, although his best prospects appear to be Kingaroy and Mt Isa. He may however have some marginal impact on some non-south east corner seats, although as he draws support fairly evenly from the LNP and Labor even if all his preferences exhaust it will not make much difference. Inside the south east corner his vote is generally not very strong, although taken together with the Greens the minor party vote is probably approaching thirty per cent across the state.

The issues which are driving the state votes are the competence and honesty of the government itself and the weakness of the Labor brand, followed by mining, health and the economy.

We also asked our panel about coal seam gas and found that fewer voters (thirty-four percent) thought it was good for the state than those who thought it was bad (forty-one per cent), but that this didn't reflect the position of those supporting major parties where almost fifty percent thought it was good versus about a quarter who thought it was bad.

The issue pitted economic development against the environment generally and farming, water quality and food security specifically. It is a major driver for the strength of the Australian Party vote.

Another area we polled was increasing state government control of local government including the takeover of water infrastructure and encroachment on town planning powers. In both cases the majority disagreed with state government encroachment and this was stronger in the case of water than town planning, probably because voters are in part reacting to increased water prices. However respondents did not agree that local government needed more powers with forty-two per cent agreeing local government had enough power versus thirty-three percent who didn't – both less than fifty per cent. This seems inconsistent with the responses on the previous issues and probably reflects reputational problems for local government which is seen as being particularly prone to manipulation by vested interests like real estate developers.

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Comments   

 
0 #1 In relation to the idea that voters thin — Andy Fitzharry 2012-01-18 08:43
In relation to the idea that voters think the real estate rougues 'influence' local government too much, I thought that was the role of local government!

To provide a subsidy to 'developers' by falling in wuith every single low grade project imaginable and featherbedding the production of personal wealth to a handful of individuals and corporations, ably aided and abetted by a biased tax system that propels landlordism as one of its major planks.

Am I wrong?
 
 
0 #2 My friends in local government point out — Graham Young 2012-01-18 12:25
My friends in local government point out that convictions for corruption and development tend to be a state government problem, not a local government one.
 
 
0 #3 People should make an effort to check ou — Lorikeet 2012-01-18 17:11
People should make an effort to check out what the minor parties have to offer by reading their websites and asking questions.

Even if only a couple of small party candidates got into the parliament, they could stop idiots from working against their own country e.g. vote against more asset sales and more empowerment of global corporations to kneecap our farmers, small business people and ordinary workers.

How many more times do Australians want to have the yolk sucked out of their nest eggs?

Everyone should try to become more conversant with the economic model of Distributism preferred by the Democratic Labor Party (DLP), which presents a viable alternative to damaging systems such as Communism or Large Scale Capitalism.

Please vote for patriots of your own nation at state and federal elections.
 
 
0 #4 It will be very disappointing if Carl Ra — Rod Foster 2012-01-19 09:31
It will be very disappointing if Carl Rackermann gets up for the Katter Party in Kingaroy. Like it or lump it the ex One Nation come Independent, Dorothy Pratt may have been nice lady but really useless for the Nanango Electorate. It would have been better to have had a marginal Labor member there as something may have been done to the roads into the South Burnett at least. Deb Frecklington would be a good member and if there is an LNP Goverment Kingaroy may get back on the map.
 
 
0 #5 RE: What motivates Queenslanders who head to the polls — Rosemarie 2012-06-29 03:41
:D Yes @ Carl, political parties were really disappointing. I also hate those politician who is already in a party and then suddenly change their party.

Rosemarie
My blog: fauteuil Cabriolet