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Government and opposition votes converging
Tuesday, 21 January 2014 15:11 | Written by Graham Young

According to our First Preference Index, Liberal and Labor votes are back to levels of support last seen in September/October 2010, which means you couldn't be sure who would win an election at the moment on a two-party preferred basis.

FPI 13 12

It's too early for despair or triumph though. There was a sharp dip in the Liberal vote just before the last election which was more than reversed by the time of the election. Voters are volatile, and this is a poll taken a long way from the prospect of a general election.

From these figures it looks like the salad days of the Greens are well-over, at least for the moment. While they enjoyed a burst of popularity just after the 2010 election (at the expense of Labor) a certain proportion of their voters seems to have moved back to Labor where they originated.

Our First Preference Index is constructed by zero basing results at September 2010 and converting current first preference intentions into a percentage of that vote.

We do this because our sample is biased to the left, due to the fact that it is an opt-in survey, and voters on the left, particularly Greens, appear more motivated to participate in this sort of activity than Labor or Liberal voters.

The movement in the sample has generally tracked the results obtained by quantitative pollsters such as Newspoll and AC Neilsen.

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Comments   

 
0 #1 RE: Government and opposition votes converging — Lorikeet 2014-01-28 16:04
I am one of a number of DLP supporters who put Liberals last on their ballot papers at the 2013 federal election, as we knew they were going to absolutely crucify the poor while giving the rich more handouts. I felt there were too many minor parties to vote for. In my electorate, the Greens and PUP picked up the bulk of minor party votes, partly because KAP had insufficient funds to work with. :sad: