We don't really think that much of either leader. While Abbott had some moments of relative popularity during the Gillard and Rudd governments, that was because they were even less popular than he is. Perhaps this loathing of political leaders is feeding into an irritation with the political system as a whole.

The Leximancer maps below tell the story in relatively few words. There is implacable resistance to both Abbott and Shorten from Labor/Greens or Coalition supporters on the other side. Minor party voters are split between the two, and tend to favour Abbott on balance.

The first map is of qualitative responses to whether or not Abbott is performing well.

Abbott's strongest support comes from people who think he is trying and the media isn't giving him a fair go. They are also withholding judgement as there hasn't been enough time. They are also reactive - giving him marks for dealing with "issues" from "Labor", but not nominating any in particular.

His strongest opponents are inclined to accuse him of breaking "promises", suggest he has no "vision" and isn't a "leader". Interestingly opponents are more likely to mention "boats" and "Indonesia" putting a premium on Australia's relationship with Indonesia over and above turning the boats back. They are less vague than his supporters and nominate policy areas where he should do better, being "climate change", "education" (including "Gonski"), "boats" and "Indonesia".

The next map looks at Shorten's approvals. (Apologies, but I've tried rotating it so that all the words are visible, but it was near impossible to achieve.)

Bill Shorten's strongest suit appears to be that at the moment he's not Tony Abbott - as you can see from the fact that his opponent's name appears close to his on the map. Again there is a sentiment that it is too "early" to "tell" and this is associated most strongly with minor party respondents.

Reasons for disapproving of him include "union" links, that he is "negative", "Labor" and membership of the "previous" government. While the Libs have a personnel problem with Abbott, Labor has a brand or institutional problem with "Labor".

As noted in the quants, support for each is evenly split when we ask who would be the better prime minister. Here is how the arguments line up.

If I were either of the leaders I would be more comfortable with to be Tony Abbott, looking at this map, even though I am slightly behind on the vote.

Abbott is front and centre as the issue, and as Oscar Wilde knew, there is only one thing worse than people talking about you, and that is people not talking about you. While a lot of the talk is negative, as the focus of talk he also has potential to leverage his arguments.

He is also associated with concepts such as "trust" and "honest", which is what makes his suttering pirhouettes on Gonski look odd - why risk that tremendously valuable political capital with his supporters?

The word most closely associated with Shorten is "anyone" as in "anyone would be better than Abbott". While governments lose elections, you still need to project some sort of a message as an opposition so that you can capitalise on that. Being wholly negative is not a viable option.

The reputational problem for Labor is also there as a negative for Shorten with Abbott supporters, present in the word "union". The government's decision to launch a royal commission into union slush funds says they are getting the same mail. This won't just be aimed at the former PM, but will take in friends and associates in the AWU and other unions.

As our quants show Shorten has made a weak impression with the electorate. That leaves an opening for the government to paint in the detail that they want so as to define him unfavourably with voters.

Verbatims

Grn: Tony Abbott is a disaster for the country and for the globe - Foreign aid slashed Climate change totally denied any business apart from destructive ones (like mining) chopped Transparency of government - non - existent Australian people, especially those most vulnerable - sacrificed in the guise of saving money, yet big business getting massive subsidies. Gina's little pet dog Australia sacrificed in teh name of trade.

LP: Shorten is a union man beholden to the factions, Australia does not need that sort of leader. The ALP should break its ties with the union movement and became an independent political party .

LP: Tony Abbott is proving to be a pragmatic thinking and experienced leader. This was well illustrated at the recent COAG meeting when the many of the premiers expressed that comment that the COAG meeting was a productive meeting of equals discussing subjects instead of them being told what to do all the time.

ALP: In the time he has been opposition leader the guy has learnt to be more considered in his answers and being the opposite of An intemperate Abbott and his bully boys and girls.

ALP:Sorry but Abbott leaves me cold. I voted for liberal last time in teh hope that we might see some maturity in government, but the born-to-rule attitudes of he and his front bench and schoolboy diplomacy is appalling

Minor: Bill Shorten is an ex union thug...and should be behind bars along with at least half the members of the Labor party. He is unfit to be a politician much less Prime Minister

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