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First preference index tips up
Sunday, 25 July 2010 15:03 | Written by Graham Young

Our first preference index has gone down for the Labor Party. This is different from the quantitative polling done by Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan suggests. I'm betting this means that support for Labor will fall over the course of the election. While our respondents generally come to the same conclusions as the average voter because our respondents think about politics more than average they often come to those conclusions ealier.

Note: I'm not predicting a Liberal win. I expect Labor to win. But I do think the margin will narrow in the next weeks. I also don't think that the Labor position is very strong. As you can see from the graph they are bleeding supporters to the left to the Greens. But support for Tony Abbott is not strong either.

FPI_July_2010_500px

While the index is about first preferences, to make the relationship between the Greens and the ALP clearer I have overlaid a plot of the two-party preferred vote over Greens and Labor graphs.

FPI_2PP_July_2010_500px

Bear in mind that these graphs are zero-based against September 2009 when Labor was on around 56% of the two-party preferred vote.

 

 

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Comments   

 
0 #1 The people's assembly? We vote for the — Bush bunny 2010-07-25 20:08
The people's assembly? We vote for the House of Representatives , and Julia Gillard is no Kevin Rudd who had popular appeal in the electorate last time. New Lamps for old, what a rort. She thinks that people will wreck a perfectly good car to get $2000 for a new car! So they trade it in for a new car, and that means that good old bomb will be resold by the dealer, and that means more cars on the road! Where are they getting the further $20k
for a new car eh?

Can't stand Julia, her personal presentation has been improved since she became PM though, but I still remember how she said her historical political hero was Nye Bevan. Geesus he was a marxist old school socialist, a drunk, and approved of Mosely at one time and the Communist Party. His only saving grace was he introduced the NHS and was Welsh, like her heritage.

If the country votes in the ALP again, we are doomed.

Even the worm tonight on NBN favored the PM, how they came to that result I don't know! It certainly seemed to heavily
favor Tony Abbott to me, particularly as he was more suscinct in his answers, where July gave us a lot of popular
political gobblegook.
 
 
0 #2 It is hard to believe that anyone would — Paul Thibault 2010-07-25 20:08
It is hard to believe that anyone would consider voting for Tony Abbott and the Liberals when their policies are simply negative and reactionary. Please give the intellectuals a break.!
 
 
0 #3 It was remarkable to watch Tony Abbott p — Felix 2010-07-25 22:49
It was remarkable to watch Tony Abbott pursue the drivel that he calls an election platform tonight: prices have gone up, and are going to go up further, under Labor (which I notice has now supplanted the 'faceless' activities of the unions in Liberal-speak -- also, was it his own party that introduced the GST, which had such a dramatic effect on prices?), a 'green army' that will address climate change (echoing the UK Conservatives' 'let's cut all services and pass the costs on to "Big Society" to manage'), and 'the boats are still coming' (yes, a few thousand boatpeople, while your own former government loosened regulations for overseas students to finish their courses and apply for PR in unprecedented numbers -- I have nothing against that, mind you, but the Liberal Party should be honest about what their motives were in that regard when they were in power -- quick profit, speedy boost to the labour force, or 'social vision'?). And his own daring vision? Let's tax big business to introduce paid maternity leave in such a way as to inevitably pass on the costs to 'Big Society'. I don't for a moment begrudge those who are likely to take that maternity leave, it's just the sheer hypocrisy of a man who has trumpeted that the proposed levy on the mining industry is an unfair tax. Abbott seems to have no vision beyond securing his own: the Lodge.