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Leaders and the qual |
The qualitative results on the approvals for Abbott and Shorten, as well as preferred prime minister undercut the results from the quants. While the quants suggest Labor is doing much better than the Liberals, the qual suggests that Bill Shorten's position is not very strong and that the results on all three issues are governed by reactions for and against Tony Abbott. The first shows the word map for approval of Tony Abbott. If you click on it to enlarge you'll see that words like "lie", "liar", "power", "vision" and "tax" cluster around those who strongly disapprove of Abbott, while the words close to strong approval are "doing", "job", "decisions", "strong". The two different points of view are summed up in these two quotes:
The words most closely associated with strong approval of Bill Shorten are "needs", "better", "job", "effective" and "Abbott". They are lacking in detail. The words most closely associated with strong disapproval are "union", "unions", "man", "power", "mess", and "people". Not as closely associated are "Gillard" and "negative". These are much more specific words and refer to Shorten's association with the unions, his record as an executioner of leaders, and Labor's record in managing the economy. The word "strong" appears close to him, along with "leadership", however these concepts are viewed negatively in Shorten's case. Again a couple of quotes illustrate the two different views (the first is from an ALP voter):
The most striking thing about this map is how sparse Bill Shorten's end is in concepts. The next most striking thing is that someone who isn't leader of either party, Malcolm Turnbull, makes a strong appearance. "Abbott" is one of the most cited reasons for voting for Shorten, meaning that his vote is reactive to Abbott (as Abbott's was to Gillard's when he was opposition leader). The word "strong" is associated with Abbott, and some of the verbatims suggest Labor would be better off with a leader other than Shorten. As the rules of the ALP have been set so that there almost certainly cannot be a change of ALP leader this side of the next election, that might end up being a problem for Labor.
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Comments
The hurdle is now just 60% of caucus opposed to Shorten instead of one more than half in favour.
Once that hurdle is passed, the leadership is lost. The members will surely not elect someone in the knowledge that well over half of his caucus have sufficiently lost confidence in his leadership to remove him.
Actually as someone on here pointed out, they did - initially. The broader membership voted for Albanese, but they were overruled by the party machine.
Let's hope they haven't blown the chance of winning it by making Shorten the leader. But we need to get rid of Abbott, so please surprise us, Bill !
which is why these comments are puerile nonsense. although there is a spark of sense in lorikeets 'removal of politicians' post.
the way to remove politicians is to establish democracy. run the nation through referendum and initiative, administered by the public service.
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