'; ?> Galaxy confirms our polling | What The People Want
Galaxy confirms our polling
Friday, 06 March 2009 07:41 | Written by Graham Young

Tomorrow's Galaxy poll (with the teaser released today on the CM website) confirms our polling. It shows a six percent swing against the government. My polling suggests 7% or thereabouts. Pretty damn close, particularly as we don't really set-out to measure quants.

So, emboldened by this result I'm going to make a few more quant predictions. On my sample it looks as though the Gold Coast and Central Queensland will swing most against the government. Brisbane is looking at the average swing, Far North Queensland and the Sunshine Coast a bit less than average and areas west of Brisbane a little more.

I am not going to put figures to this because the sample sizes are just too small. But it will be interesting on election night, if these figures hold true in our polling, to see whether they translate into results.

Share this article on your favourite social bookmarking sites:
Digg! Reddit! Del.icio.us! Google! Facebook! StumbleUpon! Twitter!
 

Comments   

 
0 #1 Comment — Marcus 2009-03-06 19:37
Is there any reason you can think of as to why these swings will occur in these regions? Obviously there is huge capacity for a rebound in the Gold Coast so it's not surprising the swing would be above average there. But what about the other regions?
 
 
0 #2 Comment — Graham Young 2009-03-06 20:10
I can't really tell anything about different motives from my qual. Just not enough people there. So anything I say is a guess. The Sunshine Coast is Liberal National anyway, so personal votes for sitting memebrs etc. would probably have meant that it held pretty well against the average. Although, given issues with water and amalgamations, I thought there might have been a larger than average swing there.

Gold Coast I'm not sure, but it used to be LNP stronghold, and went fairly Labor. Certainly Liberal at a federal level, so perhaps the ground is more fertile for a swing. Could also be a demographic effect, and I'll go and have a look at that a bit later.

West of Brisbane and CQ possibly driven by unemployment figures. My friend John Black did some anlaysis on unemployment and suggested regions where there would be heavy swings on the basis of that. However, he was predicting a heavy swing in FNQ, which isn't showing-up here. But the sample I am using for FNQ is so small, that he might be right, and I wouldn't know.

Central Queensland ought to be affected by unemployment in the mining industry, so that part seems to fit an economic driver.

Looking around Brisbane, the recession hasn't really bitten, so that could explain the low swing there.

Another explanation might be protest voting in certain areas. No point registering a protest vote if your local member isn't in the government. So areas where Labor is doing better in terms of seats held could perversely register a bigger swing because of this. That could partially explain the Gold Coast and Ipswich.
 
 
0 #3 Comment — Mick 2009-03-07 03:09
I'm from the Gold Coast and I can tell you we are sick and tired of being ignored. Premier Bligh has ignored our region, and given extra special attention to North Qld to soften the blow from the Beattie "forced council amalgamations". So now we get to show them at the polls. The LNP aren't doing themselves much favour either, and I only this week found out about a daylight saving party. That's where a lot of protest vote may go, because pretty much everyone on the Coast wants daylight saving.
 
 
0 #4 Comment — Roger 2009-03-11 05:46
I still feel it is to close to call & Bligh has the*big battalions*. Those battalions are individually, formidable. First the ALP is very deeply entrenched & have had 11 years to dig in. I have said, repeatedly, to anyone foolish enough to listen that this is not just a state election. This will be a litmus test for Rudd & federal labor. Rudd will expend any amount, over & above that already expended, to win Queensland, not for labor but for Himself. To loose His home state when a chapter in our history books beckons might breakdown even His ego. Expect more bounty from camp Rudd & a surge of spin & shonk from camp Bligh, the game is as they say still afoot.