On the basis of our results I suspect that the LNP is on about 52% of the vote with a greater than 7% swing. This is better for them than Galaxy or Newspoll, but historically the National Party vote has tended to be underestimated in polls. Galaxy and Newspoll also don’t tend to catch the late behaviour until it is too late.

Voters’ reasons for changing their votes are a microcosm of the issues driving the whole sample.

Labor is losing because voters believe they haven’t performed and that they are all spin and no substance. Health policy, and delivery of services generally, are their key weaknesses.

The Liberal Nationals aren’t winning because voters perceive them as insubstantial. They’re not losing, because most believe they wouldn’t be any worse than the government.

The Labor Party has tried to make jobs and the economy the issues of the campaign, but they have failed.

The table below tracks the number of times the major issues are mentioned by those voters who have changed their voting intention during the campaign.

It demonstrates that health is far and away the most significant amongst this group. Jobs is significant, but only in one group – those changing their vote to Labor. And even amongst this group it is not significantly higher in mentions than health and equal with the economy.

This table gives a false impression of what is driving voter behaviour, which is not policies, but rather voters’ beliefs as to whether the policies will be implemented at all. So most judgements are about the quality of the two sides, not anything specific.

Here are a few verbatims from those moving to the LNP to give you a flavour of how they are thinking.

“Because I agree with the bulk of LNP policies. I think Labor have been in long enough and the things that Labor have had time to fix they have not. That does not mean that the LNP can either but they deserve a chance. Throwing money at health for example may not be the answer. It needs more than that. Tony Morris QC might be a good place to start.” Male, 55-64, retired

“The Labor lot are hopeless and not trustworthy, the LNP may be about the same.” Male, 65-74, retired

“Greens are preferencing Labor in 14 seats. I\'m appauled that they are doing any preference deals whilst TCD is still on the Labor table. Greens have lost my vote and my confidence.” Female, 35-44, Educator/Professor/Teacher

“went to a local LNP candidates meeting and asked questions and got answsers” Male, 75+, retired.

Those moving to Labor are driven more by fear that the LNP might win, than support for the government.

“jobs, I have three sons would like to keep them in work” Male, 55-64, retired.

“Actully feeling scare the LNP may pip labor at the post.” Male, 35-44, Government official

“I am scared at how close the election seems - if we wake up on Sunday with Springborg as premier we are in DEEP trouble” Male, 35-44 Supervisor

“I want Anna Bligh to be premier but I want her to heed the voice of the people on Daylight Saving/Traveston Dam.” Female, 65-74, Educator/Teacher/Professor

“Labor doesn't deserve another guernsey, but for f***s sake the LNP couldn't organise a piss-up at Milton stattion.” Male, 35-44, Scientist

“Labor has dissapointed but the LNP just can't be trusted at such a crucial time - voting Greens is a protest vote but I'll direct preferences to Labor as the best Govt option compared to the LNP” Malre, 45-54, Scientist

“I wanted to vote LNP because Labot has had 9 yrs and hospitals, schools and infrastructure is still a mess.
However LNP has not come up with specific details on what they will do. \"Improving hospitals \' is not a meaningful statement to me .” Male, 55-64, Retired.

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