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March Omnibus - The Quants
Wednesday, 30 March 2011 10:31 | Written by Graham Young

According to quantitative analysis of our virtual focus group Julia Gillard is less popular than Tony Abbott although more disapprove of both of them than approve, and they are neck and neck as preferred Prime Minister. The carbon tax is marginally unpopular, but both the flood levy and the mining tax have positive net levels of support.

These quants are drawn from the virtual focus group which has been balanced to ensure that political representation is similar to what it is in the community at large. This is done using the most recent Newspoll results. The table below shows the splits.

First_Pref Total
Australian Democrats 1%
Christian Democrats 1%
Family First 2%
Greens 15%
Independent 6%
Labor 31%
Liberal 42%
National 2%
Total 100%

n=1305

From this group only 33% approve of Julia Gillard as Prime Minister, while 55% disapprove.

Gillard_Approve Total
Strongly approve 7%
Approve 26%
Neither approve nor disapprove 11%
Disapprove 13%
Strongly disapprove 42%
Unsure 1%
Total 100%
Total approve 34%
Total disapprove 55%
Net approve -21%

n=1301

For Abbott 40% approve and 51% disapprove.

Abbott_Approve Total
Strongly approve 16%
Approve 24%
Neither approve nor disapprove 9%
Disapprove 8%
Strongly disapprove 43%
Unsure 1%
Total 100%
Total approve 40%
Total disapprove 51%
Net approve -11%

n=1296

Yet when it comes to preferred Prime Minister it is a dead heat.

Preferred_PM Total
Julia Gillard 50%
Tony Abbott 50%
Total 100%

It seems that the longer ago a tax was announced the more popular it gets. The Carbon Tax has more or less divided the country, but the flood levy is marginally popular, and the mining resource rental tax actually achieves a majority in favour.

Carbon Tax Flood Levy MRRT
Strongly agree 28% 27% 40%
Agree 17% 21% 14%
Neither agree nor disagree 4% 11% 8%
Disagree 5% 16% 12%
Strongly disagree 43% 24% 23%
Unsure 2% 1% 4%

Total

 100% 100% 100%
Total agree 45% 48% 54%
Total disagree 49% 40% 34%
Net agree -3% 8% 20%
n=1280 n=1277 n=1275

The resource rental tax has improved its position since we last polled it in May 2010, when it was called a Resource Super Profits Tax. At that stage it had 50% approval and 40% disapproval.

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