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Exit poll and reality
Monday, 26 March 2012 06:30 | Written by Graham Young

However are composition was different from reality, with the Greens vote over-stated, and the Australian, Labor and Liberal National Party votes understated. That means that our qual will be slanted a little towards the left of the spectrum.

 

Tables of these results are below:


 WTPW Exit poll Election 2012
Bob Katter's Australian Party 9% 11.6%
Family First 4% 1.6%
Greens 20% 7.6%
Independent 3% 2.9%
Labor 17% 26.6%
Liberal National 46% 49.7%
The Queensland Party 1% 0%
Grand Total 100% 100.0%

 

Two-party preferred
Liberal National 64%
Labor 36%
Total 100%

Our polls detected a dip in the LNP vote and a rise in Labor's in the second last week of the campaign, which then disappeared to leave the vote almost exactly where it was just after Campbell Newman became leader of the LNP.

2011 2012 2012
Labor 35% 39% 36%
Liberal 65% 61% 64%
Total 100% 100% 100%

So the ALP campaign was working halfway through the campaign, but wasn't by the end. Our mid-campaign polling was finalised before Anna Bligh said that she had no evidence of wrong-doing by Newman and before the CMC said they were not investigating him.

The qualitative responses suggest that these were probably the turning-point with many citing the Labor negative campaign as a reason for voting LNP. However, there is some joy for the ALP campaigners as the qual also indicates that concern about giving the LNP too great a majority was a factor in many voting Labor. Without the last week campaign it's possible that the results could have been even more devastating.

Unfortunately our sample size is just too small to be able to diagnose how well Newman went with the female vote that I identified as a problem in our last poll. I'm hoping to get hold of some exit polling from elsewhere that might shine a light on that. Certainly the Newspoll exit poll shows that Newman polled very well with voters under 35, which is a first for quite some time for the non-Labor side of politics.

 

 

 

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