Half-time in Queensland election - the quants

Thursday, 22 March 2012 20:19 | Written by Graham Young

This is a snap shot of where the parties were last week. Since then Galaxy and Roy Morgan both indicate that things have moved back, suggesting Labor has over-played its hand.

Yet in the middle of the campaign Labor had probably pulled Newman back by 5%. The first table compares our results at the end of 2011 with our results in the middle of the campaign. I have made no adjustments to the sample, so it overstates the likely Greens vote and understates the likely Labor vote. Sample size at end of 2011 was 632 and mid-campaign 544.

First Preference
	2011	2012	Change
Australian Democrats	0%	1%	0%
Bob Katter's Australian Party	13%	11%	-2%
Christian Democrats	0%	0%	0%
Democratic Labor Party	1%	0%	0%
Family First	1%	2%	0%
Greens	16%	17%	1%
Independent	3%	3%	0%
Labor	20%	21%	2%
Liberal National	43%	45%	1%
Other	1%	0%	-1%
The Queensland Party	2%	1%	-2%

This resolves into a two-party preferred vote, calculated after allowing for non-allocation of preferences as well as allocation of:

	2011	2012	Change
Labor	35%	39%	4%
Liberal	65%	61%	-4%
	100%	100%

The decline in Campbell Newman's approval noted in November last year had continued:

Newman Approval	2011	2012	Change
Strongly approve	18%	14%	-4%
Approve	24%	25%	1%
Neither approve nor disapprove	16%	16%	0%
Disapprove	18%	16%	-2%
Strongly disapprove	24%	29%	5%
Grand Total	100%	100%	0%
Total approve	41%	39%	-61%
Total disapprove	41%	45%	3%
Net approve	0%	-6%	-47%

And Anna Bligh's approval has improved by a little more than Newman's has dropped:

Bligh Approval	2011	2012	Change
Strongly approve	9%	8%	-1%
Approve	17%	21%	4%
Neither approve nor disapprove	13%	12%	-1%
Disapprove	19%	20%	0%
Strongly disapprove	42%	39%	-2%
Grand Total	100%	100%	0%
Total approve	26%	29%	3%
Total disapprove	61%	59%	-2%
Net approve	-35%	-30%	5%