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First preference index shows small gains for Labor
Thursday, 25 October 2012 21:54 | Written by Graham Young

Our First Preference Index experiment is maintaining its record for accurately tracking movements in the major party votes. In our latest polling Labor has improved its vote significantly, the Greens have gone backwards and the Libs are a smidgin under steady, a similar result to Newspoll.

The graph below tells the story. To interpret it you have to understand that it is zero-based at September 2009 and represents movements in votes since then. The graph shows performance relative to each party's past. The Liberal lead is nowhere near as large as it looks.

FPI 12 10 thumb

 

What appears to be happening from our graph is that Labor is gaining ground against the Greens, but the Lliberals have been fairly steady since June 2011.

 

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Comments   

 
+2 #1 Cartoonist — Mick 2012-10-26 18:14
It's one of those "2 horse" races with changing weights, and unknown hazards ahead.

Neither side has much going for it, and it's just going to be which side loses by the least.

cartoonmick.wordpress.com/.../ ...

Cheers

Mick
 
 
0 #2 RE: First preference index shows small gains for Labor — Lorikeet 2012-10-31 09:22
Yes, Mick, that's right. :-*
 
 
+1 #3 Angry female — Jenny Bell 2012-11-06 07:04
Labor & the Greens , scare me to death......roll on the next election , it cant come soon enough!!!
Labor is bankrupting us & Greens will take us back to the dark ages !! why have Labor risen in the polls are at ???Anyone who can still think Labor is worth retaining ..must have a Seeing Eye Dog & A White Stick , !!!WAKE UP PEOPLE !!
 
 
0 #4 RE: First preference index shows small gains for Labor — David 2012-11-06 08:38
Dear Angry Female, I think you are forgetting that there are a great number of voters who could not countenance a government headed by Tony Abbott
 
 
0 #5 angry female — Jenny Bell 2012-11-06 08:52
so u would continue down the path of self destruction just because u dont like Abbott ...THEN YOU ARE PART OF THE PROBLEM !!!!Get off personalities and look at the DEBT we are in for a start !!!! the biggest problem I see , is that people will be so disenchanted with both major parties , they will vote in the GREENS & that would be TOTAL DISASTER ...WAKE UP AUSTRALIA !!!
 
 
0 #6 RE: First preference index shows small gains for Labor — Jeff Kevin 2012-11-06 12:31
Isn't it good to see that Australians are beginning to wake up to the fact that Tony Abbot is not up to the job and, conversely, that The PM is?
 
 
0 #7 Justan Oz — Aussie 2012-11-06 13:04
Dear Angry Female--It may have escaped your notice but the world has been in a great deal of trouble in recent years !! This is the time when Govs. must spend to keep things going== It is people like you that need to wake up..
 
 
0 #8 RE: First preference index shows small gains for Labor — Jenny Bell 2012-11-06 13:12
I feel sorry for you Jeff ....do you also have a seeing eye dog and a white stick ?
 
 
0 #9 RE: First preference index shows small gains for Labor — Jenny Bell 2012-11-06 13:17
Oh dear !!! Justan...you must be another blinkered Socialist....u wont change my mind and I wont change yours , so lets just call it quits huh ?? Poor Fella My Country , is all I can say ..with people who are as blind as you ....no more comment from me , it will be a pointless exercise ..and I am not into hopeless causes ...waste of time
 
 
+1 #10 RE: First preference index shows small gains for Labor — Jeff Kevin 2012-11-06 13:22
Hello Jenny, There is no need to be rude: please don't discriminate against those with a disability.
I stand by my comments that Australia is finally waking up to the deceit, lack of policies and predictable negativity coming from the Federal Libs. Sorry if you don't like it.