David Crisafulli’s small target strategy looks like it will pay off according to our poll taken in the first weeks of the official campaign.

We have not polled since, so it is possible that some sentiment has changed as abortion, which was only mentioned by 7 of our respondents as an issue, has been taken-up by the ALP as a strong campaign theme. This worked well for the Democrats in the USA midterm elections, spiking the predicted “red surge”. It may do the same here.

To download our poll click here.

That is particularly so as there is not a lot of emotion in the choices being made by voters. They are turning to the LNP not because they think they deserve to win the election, but because they believe the government deserves to lose. They are not turning because they see a positive vision - they don’t see vision from either side – but because after 9 years the government deserves to go. This leaves room for an emotional campaign on an emotive issue affecting a large proportion of the populace to bite.

Positive approvals of the two leaders are similar, but voters are more negative on Premier Steven Miles who has a net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) of -23%. Opposition Leader David Crisafulli has a -1% rating, which is better, but it is because more voters are neutral on him than on Steven Miles, so it is not an enthusiastic endorsement.

This lack of enthusiasm for the LNP should be a concern for them as it means the mandate they win at this election is likely to be for not being the government, not for what they want to do. While the result promises to be historically large (somewhere around 57% of the vote and enough to give them a big majority, they will be constrained in what they can do with that majority.

Throughout the campaign the LNP has campaigned on crime, but our qualitative results suggest this is not the major issue, and is viewed cynically, even by some LNP voters. Labor has campaigned against Campbell Newman, but again, this doesn’t appear to appeal to many voters, apart from the party faithful who predict cuts under Crisafulli, and privatisations.

The most critical policy issues appear to be the economy, cost of living, housing and immigration yet none of these has been addressed by either campaign. Instead, they have left these issues, bar immigration, which no one has touched, to the Greens.

Stronger still are quality of government issues. Labor is perceived to have lost control, and there is a strong feeling that it is “Time for a change”. In the diagram showing the reasons for people selecting their first preference the word “change” is most closely associated with voting LNP. This is normally associated with the Greens and ALP and when it does relates to “climate change”, but this time it is mostly change of government. In fact climate change, and the energy transition are barely issues at all.

Steven Miles is seen as being genial and mostly ineffectual. Labor and some Greens voters cut him slack for being a new premier, but other voters believe he’s desperately trying to cling onto office, making promises like the 50 cent public transport fares to buy his way back.

David Crisafulli is more of a mystery. Some voters think he is weak and that his small target strategy will continue in government, and he won’t stand up for the changes that need to be made. Others think he will be ruthless in government, and the small target is just an election ruse to be thrown aside when/if he wins. Comparisons are sometimes made with Campbell Newman, although normally by strong Labor voters.

The unusual distribution of voting intentions in this poll where the participation of self-selecting respondents gives similar results to those of randomly selected quantitative polls conducted by organisations like YouGov points to a complete lack of enthusiasm amongst Greens and ALP voters for the result of this election. That in itself points to the likely result, although it is possible that abortion, and the tireless influencer-style campaigning of Miles, along with high expectations that the LNP will win, will narrow the gap between the two parties before election day.

Our survey suggests a good win for the LNP, but it doesn’t adequately capture the regions, or young female metropolitan voters, so it is possible there are surprises that will manifest on election day. In that case the LNP, even with a 7% swing, might get around 54% of the vote, but need to form a minority government with the support of the KAP or independents. 

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