An Adelaide Advertiser poll of 575 in Sturt gives the seat to incumbent Christoper Pyne with a swing of 4.1 percentage points to him, giving him 55% of the two-party preferred vote. Pyne currently holds the seat by .09%.

The Labor first preference has fallen from 41% in 2007 to 35%, and the Liberal's has grown by 2 points to 49%. On a two-party preferred basis this result is still 2 percentage points below the result of 56.8% Pyne achieved in 2004. Support for the Greens has jumped by 4%. The sample error for a survey this size is plus or minus 4.09% at 50%

This result demonstrates the weaknesses in the overall polling figures. There can be large swings in safe seats that aren't mirrored in marginal seats, and when you introduce local members into the mix the vote may move around substantially. I have frequently seen a 10% point variance between generic party vote and member vote in the same electorate.

Labor is doing very well in South Australia, according to most polls, but if it can't take Sturt, that doesn't matter.

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