As reported in The Age by Tim Colebatch the lastest Nielsen Poll gives Labor 53% of the two-party preferred vote - a similar level to last election. The state by state story is different with an increased Labor vote in Victoria being undermined by a decreased vote in Queensland and New South Wales.

According to The Age, the poll shows Labor leading in NSW but with a swing of up to 3 percent against it, meaning the possible loss of up to 7 seats, and a 3 percent swing against it in Queensland putting six Labor seats at risk. They also think a couple could be at risk in WA, but don't say how high the swing is.

Balancing that out Labor may win two and lose one to the Greens in Victoria. This would be a momentous result for the Greens.

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