The first Newspoll of the election suggests a strong swing to Labor as the election is called giving it a 10 point lead over the Coalition on two-party preferred. This sounds unlikely. Given Newspoll's sample size a 55/45 result is the same as a 52/48 result, which feels more likely. Nielsen appears to have had a rogue poll early in the Gillard leadership. Now it could be Newspoll's turn.

Galaxy has now spoken twice, and the campaign has only just started. Their first poll was reported in News Limited newspapers this morning, and shows essentially no movement since their previous poll. It was taken just before the election was called. Their second was commissioned by Nine just after the election and has the parties a dead heat. These are likely to be statistically the same result (can't find the sample size for the second one).

Matthew Tukaki, the CEO of SansGov, has released the first in a series of business surveys dealing with climate change policies and how they impact business. Conducted over a period of two weeks with a total number of 692 respondents, the survey shows significant gaps between proposed Government policies and on the ground implementation.

Nielsen has now reported its second poll since the Gillard ascent and they are now in line with everyone else, including Galaxy, who also report today. Ignore the newspaper headlines. What they essentially show is that Labor is polling at around its level of April this year, and the election in 2007 with 52% of the two-party preferred vote. This is in line with what our online polling was suggesting just after Gillard took the leadership.