The first Newspoll of the election suggests a strong swing to Labor as the election is called giving it a 10 point lead over the Coalition on two-party preferred. This sounds unlikely. Given Newspoll's sample size a 55/45 result is the same as a 52/48 result, which feels more likely. Nielsen appears to have had a rogue poll early in the Gillard leadership. Now it could be Newspoll's turn.

We'll get a better idea when the next poll is done by Nielsen or Galaxy. Galaxy's last poll, which was conducted after the election was called, had the Coalition and Labor even on 50 percent each. These two polls are actually more or less consistent. Galaxy has been using smaller samples, but even applying the same sample error as applies to Newspoll you get a potential 53% to 47% result.

However, some of the other movements in Newspoll are larger and therefore may be giving an accurate indication of what is happening with questions like preferred leader.

Newspoll highlight results are:

• Labor primary 42% (unchanged), Coalition primary 38% (down 2 points)
• Two party preferred 55% to 45% (net move of 2 points)
• Gillard approvals: 48% satisfied, 29% dissatisfied, 23% uncommitted
• Abbott approvals: 36% satisfied, 51% dissatisfied, 13% uncommitted
• Preferred PM 57% Gillard, 27% Abbott and 16% uncommitted
• Best to handle economy Labor 42% to 41%
• Best to handle climate change Labor 31% to 25%
• Best to handle asylum seekers Coalition 39% to 29%

The most significant movement has been in disapproval of Tony Abbott which has increased by 10% in the last month or so.

If Abbott continues to run a presidential style campaign on this polling it is difficult to see him prevailing, or even doing well, even given my reservations about its complete accuracy.

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