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January 2010 Omnibus

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Federal politics and global warming.

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Global warming quantitative analysis

Only 38% of Australians favour passing the government's proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) before the Copenhagen climate summit, with 46% opposed. 42% of Australians are absolutely opposed to the CPRS, while only 40% support it.

This is the quantitative result of our online survey of 1022 Australians on global warming. The sample was balanced to reflect the voting patterns of Australians at large.

The heat is back

Global warming is back as the top issue after taking second place for much of this year. The table below needs to be viewed with a bit of caution because we have changed versions of Leximancer which is the software program we use to count concepts. The relevance appears to be a consistent concept between the tables, but the percentages in the latest sample don't appear to match well with those from the previous one, so rely on rank order rather than absolute measurements.


Heading in the right direction

Our figures show that voters are generally optimistic about the direction of the country. They are even more optimistic about their own personal circumstances.

In October last year 53% thought the country was heading in the right direction. That plunged to 41% in May this year. Those who thought the country was heading in the wrong direction went from 28% to 42%. There has been a significant reversal in these figures with 49% thinking the country is heading in the right direction now and 36% disagreeing.


Turnbull recovers but Rudd unshaken as preferred PM

I don't put a lot of store in the vanity polls, but they are interesting to follow, not least to see what everyone else says about them.

In our vanity poll this month we see a strong bounce back in the popularity ratings by Malcolm Turnbull while Rudd's show essentially no change.


Is differentiate or disappear working? October quants

Is the National Party on to something? For the first time I have included their index calculation in our First Preference Indicator (FPI) graph below. The index has now been going for just over 12 months and it shows little real change in the Labor and Liberal votes in that time with the Greens up slightly. In contrast the National Party vote has been on a roller coaster - down dramatically in the middle of the year, and now up substantially on 12 months ago.


Polls in the News

Coming soon.

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