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Our Polls

ABCC likely to go through, but Turnbull on notice

Our latest survey of 1020 Australians demonstrates broad support for the government’s ABCC Bill, but no support for an anti-union campaign. This is particularly relevant given the bill is likely to be voted on this week.

Textor thesis fails empirical test

The 2016 federal election kills off Liberal Pollster Mark Textor’s theory of how the Liberal Party would win under Malcolm Turnbull.

Quoted in an article in The Australian he agreed that the ascent of the “centrist” Malcolm Turnbull would not result in a loss of conservative votes saying:


Exit poll federal election 2016

We've released two pieces of analysis on our exit poll.

The first is our standard analysis with the quantitative tables on the sample and the Leximancer maps. You can download that by clicking here.

It dovetails with our earlier research showing social issues and climate change being prime motivators for Labor and Greens voters, the economy and debt being prime motivators for Liberal and National supporters, and non-Greens minor party voters being concerned about the economy, but also cultural issues such as refugees, Islam, terrorism and gay marriage.

The second piece of analysis looks at the contribution that the issues of Medicare, superannuation and the economy made to the vote. This shows Medicare as being a small benefit to the Coalition, superannuation negative, but with a small subset of voters, and the economy positive for the Coalition.

These issues were more positive for the Coalition with non-Greens minor party voters, who held the key to the election.

You can download this second piece of research by clicking here.

However, as our analysis piece published in On Line Opinion today shows, Labor still got a good share of the minor party vote. The next term of parliament should be an arm wrestle over that vote, with whoever winning it forming the next government in 2015 of 2016.

You can read the analysis by clicking here.



Time ripe to raise taxes

There is a good argument to keep taxes as low as possible. It’s an argument that is losing ground in modern Australia.


Happy to pay more tax

Our report into Australian attitudes to taxation was launched today. The report can be downloaded by clicking here.


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Polls in the News

First poll shows Rudd resurgent

This post is a reproduction of the Morgan Media release. Morgan has conducted an SMS poll of voters. I'm unclear on the methodology, and the track record, so the result should be treated cautiously.

Comments   

 
0 #1 RE: First poll shows Rudd resurgentangga 2014-08-29 12:00
wooo poll shows :oops:

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0 #2 RE: First poll shows Rudd resurgentangga 2014-08-29 12:01
 

ANZ Job Ads September 2011

The ANZ Job Ads Index for September shows a decline month-on-month and a deceleration in growth year on year. If you're wondering how this could be, it means that year-on-year only looks good because of the growth in the earlier part of the year.


A more likely Katter figure

"Win over Ashgrove voters? Can Do" according the the Brisbane Times and a poll by ReachTEL, meaning that Campbell Newman is likely to win Ashgrove with a substantial margin.


Polling question concocted to show Katter on 25%

A Galaxy poll reported in The Courier Mail yesterday said that Bob Katter's Australian Party could possibly score 25% of the vote at the next state election. The question is poorly worded and the result almost certainly wrong.


Home loan arrears

My colleague John Black has done some interesting analysis of home loan arrears which could go some way to explaining why Labor is in trouble in Queensland more than most other states - because it picks Queensland as a home arrears hotspot.


Earlier Posts »