|A more likely Katter figure|
"Win over Ashgrove voters? Can Do" according the the Brisbane Times and a poll by ReachTEL, meaning that Campbell Newman is likely to win Ashgrove with a substantial margin.
The poll puts Newman on 55% first preference, his Labor opponent, incumbent Kate Jones on 35%, the Greens on just 7% and Katter's party on 2%, making it a first preference win for Newman.
The Katter figure is more like what I would expect than the 25% The Courier Mail was pushing.