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Thursday, 26 March 2015 14:19 |
Written by Graham Young
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If the Liberal Party wins this state election they might owe as much of their success to Sydney traffic as they owe to Mike Baird's high approval rating.
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Monday, 23 March 2015 22:25 |
Written by Graham Young
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The New South Wales election result looks like it will be much different from the Queensland one. This may be partly because voters have seen in Queensland that governments can lose large majorities in just one term.
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Tuesday, 17 March 2015 17:27 |
Written by Graham Young
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The New South Wales coalition government is not impregnable. It may have won 64.2% of the two-party preferred vote at the last election, but that is not their real margin.
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Wednesday, 04 March 2015 15:07 |
Written by Graham Young
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What our quantitative polling told us was that the minor party preference vote was crucial to this election and it eventually settled with Labor. What I'm going to attempt to answer in this post is why that happened.
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Saturday, 28 February 2015 21:15 |
Written by Graham Young
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The success of Labor in wooing smaller party voters is quite marked in a longitudinal analysis of our Queensland election poll results.
While there was no statistically significant movement in voting intention across the entire sample, there was significant movement within the votes of those voting for minor parties or independents.
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Thursday, 12 February 2015 08:11 |
Written by Graham Young
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This analysis is based on the 24 respondents from our exit survey who identified as having changed their vote since last election, or who normally vote LNP but this time voted for the ALP. These were the voters who decided the election, so why they changed their vote is the best gauge of what really happened.
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Thursday, 29 January 2015 13:30 |
Written by Graham Young
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If Campbell Newman's campaign doesn't start focussing on the opposition and their previous record in government, then it may well hand Labor government on the back of antagonism from non-Greens minor party voters.
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Wednesday, 28 January 2015 17:10 |
Written by Graham Young
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The qual shows that voters are not enthusiastic about either of the parties. When thinking of the LNP, their disappointment, and even anger, is directed at Campbell Newman. However, when thinking of the ALP, their focus is a bit more diffused. The Leximancer maps below plus verbatims tell the story.
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Wednesday, 21 January 2015 22:58 |
Written by Graham Young
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Campbell Newman has his back against the wall with Labor currently close enough to take government on a uniform swing. This analysis is based on 603 responses from our qualitative panel.
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