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Wednesday, 31 December 2014 18:17 |
Written by Graham Young
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The first thing that should be said is that the Victorian election result was a confirmation that neither of the two major parties is held in high regard. Last election the Liberals scored 38% of the vote, this election it was Labor on 38%.
There was actually more enthusiasm for the Liberal leader, Denis Napthine, than for the Labor leader, according to Newspoll, with Napthine being favoured by 41% to 37%. This is within the statistical margin of error, and 22% were unable to say who they preferred, making it a very weak preference for either.
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Monday, 09 June 2014 18:03 |
Written by Graham Young
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The qualitative results on the approvals for Abbott and Shorten, as well as preferred prime minister undercut the results from the quants.
While the quants suggest Labor is doing much better than the Liberals, the qual suggests that Bill Shorten's position is not very strong and that the results on all three issues are governed by reactions for and against Tony Abbott.
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Sunday, 25 May 2014 19:09 |
Written by Graham Young
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After weighting our sample for likely voting intentions there are some strong messages for both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Voters are actually not impressed with either - a continuation of the trend from the last parliament.
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Sunday, 25 May 2014 18:37 |
Written by Graham Young
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 Our First Preference Index - a measure of how voting intention moves in our unweighted sample - shows the Greens being big winners from the budget.
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Monday, 19 May 2014 08:17 |
Written by Graham Young
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As far as voters are concerned it would appear that this budget is worse than the sum of its parts.
 When asked about the budget in toto it is even less popular than Wayne Swan's "tough" 2012 budget. 57% disapprove of this budget compared to 50% who approved of his, although Swan's support at 35% was a little lower than Hockey's at 39%.
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Sunday, 02 March 2014 21:11 |
Written by Graham Young
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According to the latest Galaxy Poll the Queensland government would receive 53% of the vote on a two-party preferred basis if an election were held now. This could be enough for them to scrape a bare win, or potentially face a hung parliament. This is because the electoral system incorporates around a 2.5% bias towards Labor, or at least it did before the last election.
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Monday, 27 January 2014 11:10 |
Written by Graham Young
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We don't really think that much of either leader. While Abbott had some moments of relative popularity during the Gillard and Rudd governments, that was because they were even less popular than he is. Perhaps this loathing of political leaders is feeding into an irritation with the political system as a whole.
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Monday, 27 January 2014 10:37 |
Written by Graham Young
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Voters at the margin (which is where all votes change and all elections are won) have changed their minds about Tony Abbott, but the reasons for voting for or against the government channel the last election. The winners want Abbott to clean-up the "mess", and the losers think he should be continuing the work of the previous government.
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Tuesday, 21 January 2014 16:24 |
Written by Graham Young
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One explanation for the drop in the Liberal vote and the increase in Labor vote, reported in our last post, is the standing of the leaders. At the last election Kevin Rudd was the most disliked prime minister since we began our polling. That seems to have made Tony Abbott look pretty good at the time.
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