August 2009
Survey of Wide Bay electorate
Wednesday, 26 August 2009 15:59 | Written by Graham Young

This survey came across my desk and I thought some of our readers would find it interesting .

It was undertaken by Warren Truss, Nationals Leader and member for Wide Bay. The sample size is 5,000, according to his media release.

It covers a lot of issues, but in the context of current debates I thought some more interesting than others. In particular the findings on attitudes to global warming and an ETS may well explain the National Party's recent decision to oppose any sort of ETS in the senate.

Leximancer concept maps
Sunday, 23 August 2009 13:56 | Written by Graham Young

I have been asked a number of times by respondents to these surveys to explain how the Leximancer concept maps work. Leximancer is software developed at the University of Queensland to perform analysis of text. It identifies important words in a text using statistical analysis. It then codes the blocks of text in which the words occur.

This enables flexible and powerful classification of the sort of text that we gather in our surveys, and frequently shows-up relationships that would be difficult to spot using hand-coding techniques.

The leaders - the July qual
Sunday, 23 August 2009 13:38 | Written by Graham Young

As the polling figures would suggest this is quite an uneven contest, but there are some interesting undercurrents that suggest to me that in an election context perceptions could change quickly. While Labor doesn't appear to be at any risk of losing the election, expectations of an improved performance compared to last election might be too optimistic.

Health a winner for now
Sunday, 16 August 2009 21:06 | Written by Graham Young

Fund health differently, but don't change it radically is the message from our polling on the National Health and Hospitals Reform Commission's report.

We selected a number of propositions from the report and tested them, with the results in the table below. (This analysis is based on a sample of 783 respondents weighted so as to represent national voting intentions as per the latest Newspoll findings.)

Voting trends July
Sunday, 16 August 2009 16:34 | Written by Graham Young

Liberals give back all of their ground

According to our First Preference Indicator, over the last 10 months there has been virtually no net movement in the support for the parties. The index at September last year was set at 100 for each of Labor, Liberal and Greens. As of the period from the 29th July through to the 2nd August, the figures are Labor - 104; Liberal - 100; and Greens 106. The graph shows that this reverses the movements of our May poll when it appeared that the Liberal Party might be pulling the ALP back a little. These results are tending to shadow the movements in Newspoll and Neilsen, tending to verify that our qualitative polling is indicative of quantitative shifts in voting preference across the general community.