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February 2012
The why of Julia v Kevin
Monday, 27 February 2012 00:52 | Written by Graham Young

In the previous post I summarised the basic reasons why respondents favoured one or the other of Julia or Kevin, or neither. This Leximancer map shows a word cloud with voting intention and support for either Gillard or Rudd plotted on it as well.

 
"People power" falters
Sunday, 26 February 2012 19:31 | Written by Graham Young

According to a "people power" poll conducted by us between Friday and midday Sunday Julia Gillard is marginally preferred as leader of the ALP. Kevin Rudd's best support was amongst the young, males and those living in Queensland, but it was not enough to best Julia Gillard whose best support was amongst older female Australians living in Victoria or South Australia. Gillard was also the choice of Labor voters, while Rudd was the choice of Liberals.

 
December Issues
Monday, 20 February 2012 08:00 | Written by Graham Young

Australians are very polarised between the political parties as you can see from the concept map below which is very elongated. Voters are at one end or the other and there is less than normal overlap of issues.

 
December Quants
Friday, 17 February 2012 06:00 | Written by Graham Young

According to this poll of our virtual focus group things have deteriorated for Julia Gillard since last June. (The virtual focus group is a subset of our total pool of respondents and is weighted to reflect Newspoll's estimate of the strength of the various political party first preference votes).

 
Liberal and Labor votes stagnate
Tuesday, 07 February 2012 11:13 | Written by Graham Young

Our first preference index for Labor, Liberal and Greens shows Labor and Liberal back to where they were in June last year. Not quite what the latest Nielsen shows, but in line with Newspoll. All this might be explained by error margin, or when the polls were taken (ours actually dates from late last year).

 
Problems with brand Labor
Tuesday, 07 February 2012 10:08 | Written by Graham Young

There were signs at the end of last year that the major parties were moving into a different phase of their struggle for power.