November 2010
State of disillusionment
Sunday, 28 November 2010 04:49 | Written by Graham Young

Victorian voters are unhappy with their politicians. This was an election of quiet desperation where Labor lost the election rather than the Liberals winning it (if indeed they have). While Labor has  a lot to make up to voters, the Liberals will be lucky to get a honeymoon.

 
The issues that determined the Victorian result
Saturday, 27 November 2010 08:42 | Written by Graham Young

Public Transport and Law and Order appear to have been the two most important issues to Liberal voters, and as the Liberals seem to have won, the deciding issues. I have been watching the ABC coverage as I write this and it makes it even clearer why public transport was an important issue.

 
Victorian election quants
Wednesday, 24 November 2010 12:34 | Written by Graham Young

Our quants tend to line up with the telephone polling that Nielsen, Morgan and Newspoll have been publishing. Not that the absolute numbers fall in line, but the theoretical movement since the last election is similar.We had 282 responses, which is a little small for me to do the same manipulations that I do with larger samples, so I've generally treated this one as three separate focus groups with each of Labor, Liberal and Greens voters.

 
Labor down, Libs and Greens soar
Saturday, 06 November 2010 07:57 | Written by Graham Young

I've plotted the latest quantitative results from our polling and it is a brutal story for Labor. In the 2 years since we've been tracking our respondents Labor has lost around 33 percent of its first preference vote, unlike the Liberals and Greens who have both gained more than 30 percent.

 
Parliamentary gridlock and compromise
Saturday, 06 November 2010 00:10 | Written by Graham Young

Not everyone in the electorate is sad to witness the demise of the Liberal-Labor duopoly.

Before the August election, collective wisdom was that voters wanted one or the other party in power, making the present hung parliament an aberration.