March 2011
March Omnibus - The Issues
Wednesday, 30 March 2011 23:43 | Written by Graham Young

For a couple of years Climate Change was one of the most dominating issues in our analysis, and respondents were either for it or against it. In this survey the issue has effectively become split in two. Those on the left continue to be concerned about it, but on the right concern is not about climate change directly, but the Carbon Tax, which is supposed to address it.

 
March Omnibus - The Quants
Wednesday, 30 March 2011 00:31 | Written by Graham Young

According to quantitative analysis of our virtual focus group Julia Gillard is less popular than Tony Abbott although more disapprove of both of them than approve, and they are neck and neck as preferred Prime Minister. The carbon tax is marginally unpopular, but both the flood levy and the mining tax have positive net levels of support.

 
First Preference Index March 2011
Wednesday, 30 March 2011 00:05 | Written by Graham Young

Our first preference index shows a confirmation of the decline in the ALP vote, a slight lift for the Libs and Nats, and a fall in the Greens vote. (The index tracks the first preference votes since September 2009)

 
CO2 played little part in NSW election
Monday, 28 March 2011 21:36 | Written by Graham Young

The Carbon Tax is said by some to have played a big role in the New South Wales election so I thought I'd check it against our responses. And the answer is that it didn't play a significant direct role at all. Or if it did it was in electorates that I don't get many responses from in the coal mining or heavy industrial areas of New South Wales.

 
Liberals do a Bradbury in NSW
Friday, 25 March 2011 23:03 | Written by Graham Young

The result of the New South Wales election really will be "historic", but it will be almost a solo performance. NSW Labor can claim all the credit for their loss as the Liberals do little more than a Bradbury. This means that government after the election will be perilous for the winner. Bizarre as it may seem Kristina Keneally is right - the Liberals won't really have a mandate.

 
Queensland quants: Newman heads Bligh
Friday, 25 March 2011 10:49 | Written by Graham Young

It might be the announcement effect, but our polling, conducted over Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, shows Campbell Newman well-positioned to beat Anna Bligh if an election were held now.

 
Prices take over from climate as polling tool
Tuesday, 15 March 2011 05:18 | Written by Graham Young

AUSTRALIA is unique. Nowhere else has climate change featured as a big issue in national elections in the way it has here.

In 2007, it was an important plank in Labor's push for election, driven by the fear of electors on the east coast that they might run out of water. It allowed Labor to frame John Howard as yesterday's man, out of touch with the problems of the day.