August 2010
Was it a protest vote?
Monday, 23 August 2010 12:12 | Written by Graham Young

The protest vote had nothing to do with this election. It's a bum rap. Some recent elections in Australia have been won on the basis of protest votes, but there are clear fingerprints when this happens. I've dusted the evidence and the fingerprints aren't there.

 
How voters are putting together the "Ikea" election.
Saturday, 21 August 2010 01:53 | Written by Graham Young

2007 was the first charisma election for Australians in 35 years. Never since Gough Whitlam had there been so much focus on the leader and celebrity endorsements.

 
Christian tide flows back
Friday, 20 August 2010 01:39 | Written by Graham Young

Last election we looked at the vote of people who were Christian. This showed that they had a greater tendency to swing toward Kevin Rudd than the average, although on balance they were still supporting the Liberals.

 
Policy bombshell has backfired
Thursday, 19 August 2010 11:05 | Written by Internet Thinking

Yesterday I posted results showing that Labor was winning on two issues where there were "head to head" policies from both sides - parental leave and broadband. This morning The Australian carried a piece from me looking at parental leave in much more detail, and putting the policy into context in Tony Abbott's campaign.

 
612 ABC Morning broadcast from Morayfield
Thursday, 19 August 2010 06:37 | Written by Graham Young

Graham Young on ABC panel LongmanThis morning I did a studio panel with Milton Dick, ALP Councillor for Richlands, Patrick Weller, Professor of Politics and Public Policy at Griffith University and host Madonna King on 612 ABC's Morning program. I've never done anything quite like this. We were outside Woolworths in the Morayfield Shopping Centre and there was an audience sitting in chairs in front of us.

 
Labor wins broadband and parental leave
Wednesday, 18 August 2010 20:08 | Written by Graham Young

Two of the most prominent policies in this election where the major parties go head to head are broadband and parental leave. Parental leave is particularly significant as it was formulated by Tony Abbott over the heads of his colleagues.

 
After 5 weeks they're back where they started
Tuesday, 17 August 2010 03:09 | Written by Internet Thinking

After 5 weeks of campaigning it looks like the parties are pretty much back where they started. On our unadjusted sample the two-party preferred vote is 63% Labor to 37% Coalition, which after rounding is what it was to start with. Primary votes show some small fluctuations, with the exception of the National Party, which declines sharply. This is probably because they don't stand in every seat.

 
Gender gulf amongst swingers
Monday, 09 August 2010 11:42 | Written by Graham Young

I've just isolated all those people who have changed their two-party preferred vote from one side to the other, or from undecided to one side or the other. While the sample is small (95) it does tell a credible story.

 
Labor slides four points since election called
Saturday, 07 August 2010 08:45 | Written by Graham Young

According to our first tracking poll of the election there has been a four percentage slip in Labor support since July 21. As my best guess at the time was that the Labor vote was 52% two-party preferred, this suggests that Labor is now on about 48% of the 2PP result, which is on a par with the worst polling results they are getting.

 
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