January 2014
What we think of the leaders - December 2013 qual
Monday, 27 January 2014 01:10 | Written by Graham Young

We don't really think that much of either leader. While Abbott had some moments of relative popularity during the Gillard and Rudd governments, that was because they were even less popular than he is. Perhaps this loathing of political leaders is feeding into an irritation with the political system as a whole.

 
December 2013 - First Pref Qual
Monday, 27 January 2014 00:37 | Written by Graham Young

Voters at the margin (which is where all votes change and all elections are won) have changed their minds about Tony Abbott, but the reasons for voting for or against the government channel the last election. The winners want Abbott to clean-up the "mess", and the losers think he should be continuing the work of the previous government.

 
December polling - voting quants
Tuesday, 21 January 2014 06:24 | Written by Graham Young

One explanation for the drop in the Liberal vote and the increase in Labor vote, reported in our last post, is the standing of the leaders. At the last election Kevin Rudd was the most disliked prime minister since we began our polling. That seems to have made Tony Abbott look pretty good at the time. 

 
Government and opposition votes converging
Tuesday, 21 January 2014 05:11 | Written by Graham Young

According to our First Preference Index, Liberal and Labor votes are back to levels of support last seen in September/October 2010, which means you couldn't be sure who would win an election at the moment on a two-party preferred basis.