That’s Labor’s problem this Queensland election. We market-tested two ALP and two LNP ads with 665 Queenslanders from our regular panel, and both the ALP ads had a strongly negative effect.

They tended to reinforce the views of those who have already swung to the opposition, and energized traditional Liberal and National voters more than they affected those who are still uncommitted.

You can see commentary based on the responses in my article from today’s Australian.

This analysis will give you a little more depth in some areas.

The Australian reports today on Newspoll research which puts the Liberal National Party in a small lead over the ALP. It's not up on Newspoll's site yet, but it confirms Galaxy and our own findings.

Most notable movement in the figures appears to be the deterioration in Premier Anna Bligh's satisfaction rating plunging from 52% to 47%. Springborg satisfaction is 44%, almost the same figure as Bligh, although his disapproval rating has been rising, and a larger number of people are undecided about him than Bligh.

We uncovered strong dissatisfaction with Bligh in June last year. What we detected 9 months ago appears to have leaked into the general population. This suggests that the LNP lead is likely to increase.

While our respondents haven't moved much, the general populace has. My suspicion is that this is because our sample regularly thinks more deeply about politics than the average, but that when the average turns its mind to the same issues as an election approaches, it thinks similarly.

We are a week and a half out from the election and it is about now that most voters seriously start thinking about how they will vote. That means, assuming my theory is true, that the quantitative polls should start to capture more defections at the same time that the undecided vote collapses and tends to favour the LNP which should push the LNP vote relatively higher.

All of this assumes that nothing happens from outside the system between now and election day to radically alter perceptions. Cyclone Hamish making a landfall is just one of those potential factors; or one or other of the leaders making a major gaffe.

(Re-reading my earlier research, the only thing which doesn't appear accurate is my prediction that there would be no early election. Perhaps an example of a rogue population rather than rogue sampling, as I was essentially predicting the behaviour of a single person - the Premier.)

Voters are bored and disillusioned with Labor – that’s the basic reason that the Liberal National Party looks likely to achieve at least a minority government after this year’s Queensland state election.

It’s an “It’s time” election, but one where there is little sense that changing governments will really create much change. There is a pervading mood that no-one could do worse than the incumbents, so someone else might as well be given a go. There’s little perceived risk in a change, because voters see so little of value in what they have now.

This qualitative analysis is based on what voters who have already swung (I’m calling them “swung voters”) are telling us and assumes that what has swung them will ultimately swing other voters.

Yesterday The Australian's analysis of the latest Victorian Newspoll suggested that the increase in the Victorian government's vote was due to the fires which have devastated the state.

The theory rests on the presumption that natural disasters unite the community, and that as the real and symbolic head of state, the premier or prime minister gains an advantage from that.

As the Victorian government's popularity had recovered by the end of last year (up from 51% 2PP to 57% 2PP between samples) and this year's results (60% 2PP) are just within sampling error that hypothesis looks a little shaky, however the popularity of Premier Brumby was up from 45% to 52% over the same period, so it is possible.

Which raises the issue of Cyclone Hamish, a once in a 100 years cyclone threatening the coast of Queensland right in the middle of an election campaign. If it devastates any part of Queensland, will it enhance Anna Bligh's chances?

Or will she be blamed, given that she has already been criticised for calling this early election while much of Queensland is still in flood?

Much may depend on whether Queensland's disaster services are seen as being up-to-scratch.

When I went to find the most effective TV ads from Labor and the LNP to road-test on our surveys they were nowhere to be seen. It's common political wisdom, and I think true, that positive ads don't change governments, negative ads do.

Positive ads are good at reinforcing the beliefs of the already converted, but don't motivate those who are swinging or swaying.

So the best two ads of this campaign are "Not him, not them, not now" from Labor, and the "Anna file" ad from the LibNats. You won't find "Not him, not them, not now" on Anna's site, but you will find generic "Labor file" versions of the "Anna file" on the LNP site.

BTW, someone needs to tell the webmaster at www.springborg.com that they've called the election. Seems like all the effort is going into the LNP site while the Springborg site is just another Mary Celeste on the interwebs.

Anyway, to help both sides out I thought I would put both the ads up here. I've been able to find "Not him etc." thanks to Malcolm Farnsworth, but only the generic "file" ad. The one that targets Bligh personally is very powerful and runs through some negative headlines on her career in education and treasury.