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Tuesday, 17 August 2010 13:09 |
Written by Internet Thinking
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After 5 weeks of campaigning it looks like the parties are pretty much back where they started. On our unadjusted sample the two-party preferred vote is 63% Labor to 37% Coalition, which after rounding is what it was to start with. Primary votes show some small fluctuations, with the exception of the National Party, which declines sharply. This is probably because they don't stand in every seat.
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Monday, 09 August 2010 21:42 |
Written by Graham Young
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I've just isolated all those people who have changed their two-party preferred vote from one side to the other, or from undecided to one side or the other. While the sample is small (95) it does tell a credible story.
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Saturday, 07 August 2010 18:45 |
Written by Graham Young
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According to our first tracking poll of the election there has been a four percentage slip in Labor support since July 21. As my best guess at the time was that the Labor vote was 52% two-party preferred, this suggests that Labor is now on about 48% of the 2PP result, which is on a par with the worst polling results they are getting.
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Saturday, 07 August 2010 14:39 |
Written by Jo
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The proliferation of pundits is one of the strangest features of this strange election campaign. Forget Twitter, Facebook and the chattering classes.
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Sunday, 01 August 2010 19:23 |
Written by Graham Young
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The politicians are telling us that this election is about a lot of things, but that's not what electors are saying. For them there are a very few issues, and they are mostly issues of character. The Leximancer map below explores the question of preferred prime minister. The central theme, as it should be, is leadership, but the strengths of the respective candidates are gender for the PM and trust for the challenger.
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Thursday, 29 July 2010 10:26 |
Written by Graham Young
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 Last night's 7.30 report featured a cameo appearance by yours truly. This election will be lost and won in the Queensland and New South Wales and they were looking at a series of marginal seats in and around Brisbane.
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Wednesday, 28 July 2010 20:50 |
Written by Graham Young
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It’s too early to make a call of the election, but if you’re a forecaster why wait until it’s obvious? So here’s my call. Julia Gillard is going to win. But that doesn’t mean that Tony Abbott can’t be a winner too.
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Sunday, 25 July 2010 23:36 |
Written by Graham Young
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45 percent of Australia's largest focus group chose Julia Gillard as the winner of the Leaders Debate, 34 percent chose Tony Abbott and 20 percent called it a draw.
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Sunday, 25 July 2010 15:03 |
Written by Graham Young
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Our first preference index has gone down for the Labor Party. This is different from the quantitative polling done by Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan suggests. I'm betting this means that support for Labor will fall over the course of the election. While our respondents generally come to the same conclusions as the average voter because our respondents think about politics more than average they often come to those conclusions ealier.
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