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Queensland politics - should Anna Bligh call an early election?
Thursday, 29 January 2009 01:46 | Written by Graham Young

While our samples are done for qualitative purposes, you can draw some quantitative conclusions. This is a good example.

We asked respondents whether they were more or less likely to vote Labor if there was an early election. 38% said they were less likely. How significant is that?

The dissection below gives you some clues.
Early_Election_Jan_09.jpg

You can basically disregard the views of LNP voters, because they weren't going to vote for the government anyway. There might be some potential defectors in the ALP voters column, but at six percent they are likely to be overwhelmed by other issues.

Family First, Democrats and One Nation are small samples, and this is partly a function of their distribution in the community, so their views are marginally important, although combined they could be important in a number of seats where small differences in preference allocation could be the determining factor.

Greens are very significant, and could make the difference for Labor, particularly if they just vote one and don't preference them. This is a bloc that runs two-thirds or better to Labor on preferences, and represents around 10% of the vote come elections.

Undecideds and Independents are also quite important. Independents are increasingly important in election results, and represent 5 seats in the Queensland Parliament. Our sample has eight percent declaring themselves as Undecided.

So, the cumulative effect of this is that there would want to be very compelling reasons for Bligh to call an election in February or March of this year. And if she does, voters should ask themselves just how bad things may be going to get.

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Comments   

 
0 #1 Comment — Daylight Saving is an election issue 2009-01-29 19:51
Why haven't you included the newly formed Daylight Saving for South East Queensland Party (DS4SEQ)?

I believe that a number of people are going to vote for them, as they are very frustrated that neither major party has seriously considered a dual time zone approach for DST.

The DS4SEQ Party are proposing a dual time zone, allowing a respectful view towards regional and rural Queenslanders, whilst also giving consideration to the view of the majority of residents in South East Queensland. This will allow regional and rural Queensland to continue
to operate on Australian Eastern Standard time, whilst the South East Queensland region adopts Daylight Saving Time for 6 months of the year.

As the majority in Queensland now support the introduction of DST, with about 70% of SEQ in support (figures from the Qld Government's own research), this seems a logical step forward, and of course this concept has previously been discussed on your forums.
 
 
0 #2 Comment — Graham Young 2009-01-29 20:01
I've just checked the results and only one person (you?) said they would vote for this party. I can't cover everything, unfortunately.
 
 
0 #3 Comment — Daylight Saving is an election issue 2009-01-29 20:24
Well if you actually had DS4SEQ as an option, I think you would find more people would select them as their voting choice.
 
 
0 #4 Comment — David Jones 2009-01-30 23:44
I think if we analyse the performance of the ALP government over that last eleven years, several issues stand out as failures. There has been no recognition of the need to unlock the Brisbane gridlock until just recently, with not one new arterial road or freeway completed in eleven years, while our population has risen by a third and it has been shown to cost us billions per annum; the health system is in disarray and should be taken over by the Commonwealth which funds most of it; our Police and other emergency and community services are stretched to breaking point; there has been no recognition of the vast majority of Queenslanders who have asked for daylight saving, nor has the huge fiscal savings to be made by adopting DLS been recognised, and the state government has yet to eliminate virtually ANY of the state taxes and charges which were promised with the introduction of GST. This is government theft.
And they want me to vote for them ? I think not.
 
 
0 #5 Comment — brenda mason 2009-01-31 17:06
In your analysis of the results of this survey you stress the significance of the Qld Green Party. However, in your lists where one chooses a party, the Greens are never included.

To include the Greens in the list of choices would surely improve the quality of your analysis?
 
 
0 #6 Comment — Brad McPherson 2009-01-31 22:24
Brenda makes a good point. However, I think you should actually stress the significance of ALL minor parties, not just the Greens. That includes this new DS4SEQ party, that i just saw mentioned in the comments. I don't mind either way with daylight saving, but I understand more people want it now than ever before.
 
 
0 #7 Comment — Graham Young 2009-02-02 16:46
Brenda,

The Greens are always included as an option. 25% of respondents in this survey said that if an election were held this weekend they would vote for the Greens.

We also have an "other" option where you can put in a party if we have missed one. Our standard list includes all the major minors, but you can always miss one. I'll put the daylight saving party in next time, but there is bound to always be someone else who says they have been left off.
 
 
0 #8 Comment — Voter 2009-02-09 05:24
Going early, running full term...whicheve r way, we still don't have much of a choice. A government that has proven they shouldn't be in power, or a merged party, which is run by a country boy, not interested in what urban residents needs are. The minor parties are going to make the difference, cos one of them has my vote - which one I have yet to decide.