Queensland quants

Sunday, 15 January 2012 11:00 | by Graham Young

These are raw unadjusted figures from our virtual focus group and probably overstate the LNP vote and understate Labor. They may also understate Bob Katter's vote as there are fewer respondents from the areas where he appears to be doing well compared to the south-east metropolitan areas where he is doing less well.

There is also a collapse in the Labor two-party preferred vote. This is a longitudinal study, so while the absolute percentages almost certainly skew towards the LNP, the movements are predictive. According to David Fraser's analysis, the Labor Party scored 50.6% of the two-party preferred vote last election, so a nine percent swing against would put them on 41.6%. Our methodology asks voters whether and how they will allocate their preference, which is better than that used by most other pollstsers. Where around one-third of the first preference vote will go to minor parties exhaustion factors can be crucial in determining results.